'Opportunistic' Russia Launching Offensives on 3 Fronts Amid Aid Delays—ISW

Ukraine's troops have been unable to properly defend against Russia's forces due to delays in Western assistance, the Institute for the Study of War has said.

The Washington, D.C. think tank's assessment comes amid a debate among Ukraine's allies about continued aid for Kyiv against Vladimir Putin's aggression, following Russia's capture of Avdiivka in the Donetsk oblast on Saturday.

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the withdrawal "to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives" of his troops but there are reports that the retreat was not carried out smoothly.

Units of Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade were left "completely surrounded" in the town fiercely fought over for months, but all managed to escape before Russia captured the city, the unit's deputy commander, Maksym Zhorin, said on Monday.

U.S. Congress's deadlock over a $60 billion aid deal for Kyiv along with delays from Ukraine's European allies have added to concerns that equipment and ammunition shortages faced by Kyiv's troops hands Moscow the advantage.

The think tank said on Sunday that these delays "are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the frontline" to pressure Ukrainian forces on different axes.

As well as in and around Avdiivka, Russian forces are conducting offensive efforts along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and near Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

"Critical Ukrainian shortages in Western-provided equipment and fears of the complete cessation of U.S. military aid have forced Ukrainian troops to husband materiel along the entire front," the think tank said. This has likely "encouraged Russian forces to exploit the situation and launch limited offensive operations."

These Russian offensive efforts will probably hinder Ukrainian forces from preparing troops and equipment for further counteroffensives and show how Kyiv faces operational disadvantages if it simply tries to defend for the rest of the year as some allies and analysts have suggested.

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE Ideas, said that it was notable that much of the EU and the U.S. funding for Kyiv was allocated to non-military expenses which left Ukraine "inadequately equipped to repel Russian advances."

"Western governments must confront the question—how committed are we to supporting Ukraine to win," he told Newsweek. "If NATO members increased support for Ukraine to 2 percent of each member's GDP, support for the country will be closer to $500 billion per annum, which means Ukraine will significantly outspend Russia, and the war could be over before the end of 2025."

Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian defense ministry for comment.

Continued military assistance for Kyiv and the threat Russia poses to NATO was a key topic at the Munich security conference over the last few days, with Germany warning that the alliance faces a threat in the coming years as it called on European allies to help Ukraine.

The White House is prepared to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) if Congress approves the new funding package that is currently stalled, according to NBC News, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

The U.S. delivered to Ukraine ATACMS in October 2023, but they were an older model with a smaller range than its newer variants. Meanwhile, Kyiv may receive its first F-16 fighter jets this June, Foreign Policy magazine has reported, citing Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas and an unnamed European official.

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