How Ukraine Lost Avdiivka

Ukraine has withdrawn its troops from Avdiivka after months of fierce fighting for the Donetsk town, whose capture by Russia is Vladimir Putin's first major gain in his full-scale invasion since Bakhmut in the same region in May 2023.

Russian state television lauded a propaganda victory and showed blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags being replaced by Russia's white, blue and red tricolor in the town, including over its chemical and coke plant—which had been a focus of hostilities.

Details have emerged about the tough conditions that Ukrainian troops were facing over the last week in the battle. Russia suffered huge losses of troops and equipment during the fighting, although Kyiv is also reported to have suffered large casualties.

Ukraine's new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, had visited the Avdiivka sector at the start of last week and by Thursday, the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, one of Kyiv's most combat-ready units, was urgently redeployed there, according to Ukrainian news outlet RBC.

But Ukrainian troops had to contend with around seven Russian brigades from all angles. Deputy Brigadier Maksym Zhorin said that in some positions there were "six Ukrainian soldiers are holding the defense, while about 100 occupants are storming," RBC reported.

Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksandr Borodin said Russia had a seven-to-one ratio advantage and that, unlike in Bakhmut where Russia conducted "meat waves," Kyiv's troops faced linear mechanized brigades and specialists from the Russian State Intelligence Service.

Moscow could draw upon almost "unlimited" guided aerial bombs, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and FPV drones, RBC said.

Meanwhile, the Kyiv Independent reported that the 110th Motorized Brigade defending Avdiivka had been sent the reinforcements that it needed and a delay in its withdrawal cost lives. Syrskyi officially announced the decision to withdraw at 2 a.m. on Saturday. Ivan Sekach, the press officer of the 110th Brigade, told the Kyiv Independent that all of its units are now out of Avdiivka.

"In the end, the former commander [Valerii] Zaluzhny, who had long proposed leaving the city, was recognized as right," Konstantin Skorkin, a journalist and researcher who specializes in Ukraine told Newsweek.

President Volodymyr Zelensky had "demanded to hold the city and personally came to support the army in positions in Avdiivka," Skorkin said and that the decision to retreat "means that Zaluzhny's vision was correct and realistic."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russia was able to provide "close air support" for its forces on the ground in the last few days as it launched glide bombs on parts of the city, which are nearly impossible to shoot down.

The think tank concluded Russia's mass strikes for days "suggests that Ukrainian forces were not able to deny them access to the airspace around Avdiivka," and Moscow leveraged air superiority to capture the town. Russia's Defense Ministry said capturing Avdiivka pushes the front line farther from Donetsk city, hampering Ukrainian efforts to recapture it.

"It is important what happens next—does the Ukrainian army have a new line of defense that will not allow enemies to advance further into Donbas?" said Skorkin. "The next goal is Slovyansk."

"Putin can celebrate, his propaganda will present the capture of Avdiivka as a great victory, although, given the losses, this clearly is not the case, "he added, "but how many resources does the Russian army have to continue such tactics?"

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