Russia Makes Advances After Major Shift in Tactics: Analyst

Russian forces have picked up momentum along the front lines in Ukraine while Kyiv has begun reorganizing into a defensive position, according to German political analyst Nico Lange.

In a thread to X, formerly Twitter, on Friday, Lange, chief of staff for Germany's Minister of Defense, broke down the significance of recent advances by Russia in eastern Ukraine regarding the 22-month-long war, and what Kyiv needs in order to hold off further Moscow development. Fighting in Ukraine has centered around the eastern and southern front lines for months, with Kyiv focused on regaining its territory that has been occupied by Russia since the start of the war in February 2022.

Ukraine's counteroffensive, however, has proceeded much more slowly than Kyiv and its Western allies would have originally hoped, and with winter weather setting in quickly, experts predict that the tide could begin turning in Moscow's favor. John Kirby, White House National Security Council coordinator, told reporters during a briefing Wednesday that U.S. intelligence has "every reason to believe that as the ground freezes towards the end of January and into February, that will make it easier for Russian forces to go on the move."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said in its Thursday assessment on the war in Ukraine that Kirby's statements were "consistent" with its own observations.

Smaller Advances, Larger Momentum

According to Lange's assessment, Russian troops have focused a majority of their attacks in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, with the battle for Avdiivka—an industrial Donetsk village that has seen some of the most intense fighting in recent months—at the heart of Moscow's mission in the region.

"In addition to ongoing major Russian attacks at Avdiivka, Russia is now making several smaller attempted advances," Lange wrote on X. "Russia is thus regaining the initiative on the front in the northeast and east. The territorial gains achieved so far remain small."

Meanwhile, on the southern front lines, Russia is primarily carrying out airstrikes and drone attacks on Kyiv's forces, according to Lange. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on Thursday that Russia launched a series of airstrikes that targeted the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Moscow also launched drone attacks on northern and western Ukrainian regions on Wednesday and Thursday, according to Ukrainian sources cited by the ISW, including strikes that targeted Kyiv.

"Ukraine went into defense mode," Lange said. "However, in this phase, the Ukrainian armed forces no longer seem to be concerned with unconditionally holding their positions, but rather with delaying battles."

The German official noted that while Ukraine's defense measures allow the "occasional Russian territorial gains," Moscow is also suffering "extremely high losses" to achieve marginal advances along the front lines. A Ukrainian source said on Wednesday that Russia is losing nearly 10,000 troops per kilometer that is gained toward Avdiivka. ISW reported Thursday that Russia made recent confirmed advances around the city.

How to Support Ukraine's Defenses

In order to keep up with Russia's tactics, Lange says, Ukraine is in need of more artillery ammunition, better repair and maintenance of its armored vehicles and additional air and drone defense systems.

"The situation is difficult for the armed forces of Ukraine, especially because of a lack of resources such as artillery ammunition, spare parts and quick repair options," Lange wrote. "The situation could improve with better drone defense, more drones and operational F-16s."

Support for Ukraine's offensive has begun to waver among some of the country's stronger Western allies. The White House announced earlier this week that it was planning to send one more military aid package to Kyiv this month, but that any further funding would have to be approved in Congress. The roadblocks had led to some speculation that Moscow may be given a new window of opportunity to make significant gains in 2024. But Lange said that "talk of Ukraine's 'futility' or 'defeat' is exaggerated in view of the real military events."

"However, the difficulties in Ukraine and, above all, the domestic political blockade in the USA are leading to premature victory rhetoric and overly self-confident propaganda on the Russian side," he said.

"Ukraine's partners should finally move away from the 'support as long as necessary' formula, frustrate Russian ambitions and put Ukraine in a stronger position to open a path to real solutions," Lange concluded.

Newsweek reached out to the ministries of defense for Ukraine and Russia via email on Friday for comment.

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