Ukraine War Maps Show Ground Won, Lost as Russia Regains Initiative

Russian forces have gained momentum along parts of the front in Ukraine, according to some assessments, as maps show the latest state of play in the war.

Kremlin-backed military bloggers wrote on Friday that Russia troops had advanced along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line northeast of Kupiansk, although the Institute for the Study of War think tank said it could not confirm these claims.

In the Donetsk oblast, geolocated footage confirmed gains by Russian forces northeast of Bakhmut, following recent advances southwest of the town which has been fiercely fought over for months.

Meanwhile, the ISW noted how on Thursday and Friday, Russian forces had made marginal advances southeast and northwest of Avdiivka, the Donetsk town it launched an offensive towards in October which has come at high losses. The latest maps by the ISW shows Russian advances in recent days around Vodayne to the west of Avdiivka and to the north and southwest of Bakhmut.

The ISW said on Friday that there have been no confirmed territorial gains from either side on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.

It comes as political analyst Nico Lange, the former German defense minister's chief-of-staff, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that as well as its attacks towards Avdiivka, Russian forces are making "several smaller attempted advances."

This has meant that Russian troops are "regaining the initiative on the front in the northeast and east," although "the territorial gains achieved so far remain small."

Lange said Russia is intensifying the shelling of cities close to the front "to terrorize the civilian population" and that Ukrainian forces have gone into "defense mode" with the aim of delaying battles, rather than holding their positions.

Amid the incremental Russian territorial gains there are also "extremely high losses on the Russian side," Lange added.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said on Thursday Russia is intensifying its efforts to offset high losses in Ukraine to sustain its offensive operations, recruiting up to 1,200 troops a day.

Ukrainian have officials previously reported that over summer and spring this year, Russia was recruiting roughly 20,000 personnel per month through crypto-mobilization efforts per month. Skibitskyi's figure suggests that Russia currently generates up to 37,200 new personnel a month, closer to Moscow's estimates of 40,000.

The ISW said that Skibitskyi's statement suggests that Moscow is trying to maintain the tempo of its offensive operations but cannot simultaneously generate large reserve forces while maintaining or increasing Russian forces' operational tempo in Ukraine.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment by email.

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