Mystery Over Russia's 'Disappearing' Air Defenses

Russia has likely transferred its prized S-400 Triumph air defense systems from the Kaliningrad region to be used in President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, recent satellite imagery analyzed by investigative outlet Bellingcat suggests.

Bellingcat, a Netherlands-based OSINT (open source intelligence) outlet, ran an investigation titled "As Cargo Flights Leave Kaliningrad, Air Defence Systems Disappear" on Monday. That came after social media users and analysts in late October noticed an uptick in Russian military cargo flights, particularly of the Il-76 aircraft and the An-124, which the publication notes is one the largest heavy strategic military transport aircraft in use today.

Kaliningrad is a strategically important Russian port city on the Baltic Sea, located in Kaliningrad region, a territory separate from the rest of Russia and bordered by NATO members Lithuania and Poland.

Some observers speculated that Russia could be transporting S-400 missile systems to Rostov-on-Don—a city in the south close to Ukraine's southeastern border—after Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed three of them using U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), in an attack that Moscow said it had thwarted.

Bellingcat said it was able to independently verify that An-124 and Il-76 cargo flights left Kaliningrad throughout early November, and that since the departures, researchers found through satellite imagery a marked change at two air defense sites, indicating that at least some of Russia's S-400 systems had been relocated.

"Where exactly they have gone remains uncertain," the outlet said.

Newsweek has contacted Bellingcat and Russia's Ministry of Defense for comment via email.

The S-400 is a Russia-designed mobile surface-to-air missile system (SAM) that's capable of engaging aircraft, UAVs and cruise missiles, and has a terminal ballistic missile defense capability, according to the U.S.-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

CSIS states that Russia began developing the S-400 in 1993. It mostly uses the 48N6 missile series, which allows it to hit aerial targets at ranges up to 250 kilometers (155 miles), and the systems are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles across a 60-kilometer radius.

Bellingcat said its investigation began after the U.K.'s defense ministry said on November 9 that new analysis suggests that to maintain coverage over Ukraine, Russia will likely need to reallocate long-range Surface to Air Missile (SAM) systems, "which are routinely protecting distant parts of Russia."

"The reallocation of strategic air defence assets would further demonstrate how the Ukraine conflict continues to overextend Russia's military and strains its ability to retain baseline defences across its vast area," the British defense ministry said at the time.

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