Ukraine's Advance Puts Putin's Prize Possession at Risk

Ukrainian military forces are on the offensive, making advancements into Russian-occupied territory that could signal Ukraine's intent to more aggressively try to reclaim Crimea.

Ukrainian soldiers have infiltrated the east bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine's Kherson region, according to both Ukrainian and Russian officials. The region was one of four territories annexed by Russia in September 2022 following what the West has called a sham referendum. The other territories are Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

Kherson in particular has been an on-and-off hotbed of fighting between both sides, with Ukrainian advancements being successfully thwarted for most of the roughly 21 months of ongoing conflict. Ukrainian officials said Russia evacuated soldiers from the area in November 2022 and March of this year, although it has maintained its hold with strong self-defensive actions.

Vladimir Saldo, the Kremlin-installed governor of Kherson, said Wednesday on Telegram that small groups of Ukrainian "militants" have been observed in the village of Krynki "for some time" and were "sending more manpower than our means of destruction were able to destroy."

The advancement was short-lived, according to Saldo, who said that the Ukrainian military lost at least 1½ to two full-fledged battalions. The average lifespan per soldier after crossing into Kherson was slightly longer than two days, he added.

"The enemy is blocked in Krynki, a fiery hell is arranged for him: bombs, missiles, ammunition from heavy flamethrower systems, artillery shells, and drones are flying at him," Saldo said, according to a Google translation. "They sit in basements and run around one at a time at night. Over the last two or three days alone, the enemy's total losses amounted to about a hundred militants."

Saldo also said that Ukrainian officials are sending their soldiers to "slaughter." In a subsequent post, he said Russia's military is "surprised at how much the Ukrainian command does not value the lives of its personnel."

"It is not surprising that the flow of Ukrainian prisoners from the left bank of the Dnieper [River] does not dry up," he went on. "More and more Ukrainian soldiers are beginning to understand that they are being sent to their deaths at the whim of one inadequate clown and his cynical overseas handlers."

Andriy Yermak, who heads the Ukrainian presidential office, expressed a more optimistic view of his nation's military strategy, saying that such advancement raises the possibility of reclaiming the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.

"Against all odds, Ukraine's Defense Forces have gained a foothold on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro," Yermak told the Hudson Institute think tank in the U.S., according to a post on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's website. "Step by step, they are demilitarizing Crimea. We have covered 70 percent of the distance. And our counteroffensive is developing."

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries via email for comment.

Not too much credence should be paid to Russian-issued reports, Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University, told Newsweek. He cited past retractions made by Moscow during the war.

"While the counteroffensive has not given Ukraine major territorial gains as fast as some expected, it's important that Ukraine adapted its strategy, it's taking a longer-term approach, and it has been succeeding in several areas," he said.

Alexseev noted the gradual whittling down of Russia's artillery systems and logistical capabilities. As Russian defenses are much more entrenched, he said, it remains to be seen whether Russia can maintain its capacity to rapidly boost firepower against Ukrainian forces in new strongholds.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former president of Russia, said that an ex-NATO official's statement regarding Ukraine's admission into the military alliance is proof that Crimea and Kherson do not belong to Ukraine.

He was referring to remarks by former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who told The Guardian on Saturday that Ukraine's entry into NATO could depend on its control of its current territories and not those occupied by Russia.

"These territories are definitely no longer Ukraine in their understanding," Medvedev wrote, singling out Crimea and the Donbas region. "Not bad, but it's important to move on. We must admit that Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv and practically everything else is not Ukraine at all."

Update 11/16/23, 8:12 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from professor Mikhail Alexseev.

Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.