Revolving door of Pakistan politics: Who will form govt?

Pakistan conducted its parliamentary elections on February 8, 2024 with 44 political parties vying for 265 seats in the National Assembly. This marked the country’s 12th general election since gaining independence 76 years ago.

According to the final tally on the Election Commission of Pakistan website, Independents backed by jailed former prime minister Imran Khan have won 101 of the 265 seats, a report on Dawn said. This is followed by Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N which won 75 seats, and the Pakistan People’s Party, which secured 54 seats.

Historically, Pakistan’s political landscape has been fraught with turmoil and includes three constitutions and several military coups. Further, none of its 30 prime ministers have managed to complete a full five-year term.

About the elections:

The next Prime Minister must secure a simple majority Pakistan National Assembly, equivalent to 169 votes, to take office. Three primary political contenders include the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) under the leadership of Imran Khan, and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which is endorsing former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari as its PM candidate.

Allegations of rigging results: Allegations of result tampering began circulating shortly after the voting, with videos and specific details from polling stations shared on social media. Neither the PML-N nor the PPP pressed for prompt result announcements or attempted to publicise their progress or seat count. Only the PTI teams fervently demanded results from the Election Commission of Pakistan, mobilising polling agents and supporters to secure signed copies of Form 45 and persistently following up with Returning Officers (ROs) until the results were compiled and declared. PTI-backed candidates contested the elections as Independents but with full acknowledgment of their association with Imran Khan.

Although official leads or subsequent results were unavailable, PTI teams and numerous media outlets began aggregating results based on polling station tallies and publicly updating the outcomes. The official results started trickling in from the morning of February 9 and soon differences started emerging in the results, especially the number of seats shown against PTI-backed Independent candidates. The Election Commission has declared only 93 PTI-backed candidates as winners, while based on collation of original Form 45s on February 10, the PTI has claimed 170 seats in the National Assembly and expressed confidence in forming governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.

Who will form the government?

Following the final vote count after the country’s elections, Independents supported by Imran Khan’s PTI are leading, prompting the PTI to seek an alliance with another political party to form the government, reported Dawn. PTI leader Gohar Khan stated that the party will not be reaching out to Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N or Bilawal Bhutto’s PPP.

Meanwhile, Bilawal and PPP president Asif Ali Zardari met PML-N chief Shehbaz Sharif on Sunday, and both parties tentatively agreed to collaborate “in principle” to prevent political instability in the country. According to the statement released by Shehbaz Sharif, the leaders of both parties discussed the country’s overall situation and potential political cooperation in the future.

What happens next?

As per the Constitution, Pakistan President Arif Alvi must summon a new session of the National Assembly by February 29. In accordance with Section 91(2) of the Constitution, the president is mandated to convene the National Assembly session within 21 days following the official announcement of election results or the issuance of its notification. A senior official from the National Assembly Secretariat confirmed that all requisite preparations have been made to commence the inaugural session of the new assembly, as reported by Dawn.

Who could be next PM?

The PML-N leaders have initiated discussions to devise a formula for the establishment of a federal government, as reported by The Express Tribune. The talks involve exploring the terms of a potential alliance with the PPP and the Muttahida Quami Movement-Pakistan. According to the report, in the event of an alliance agreement, the PML-N would assume the position of Prime Minister, while the roles of the President and Speaker would be reserved for its coalition partners.

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