Ukraine: NATO membership a question of ‘when, not if’

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday that the alliance must provide Ukraine with more systematic military support over a longer period and that Kyiv’s membership of the alliance is a matter of “when, not if.” He was speaking as the foreign ministers of NATO member states met in Brussels for a two-day summit.

“We need to shift the dynamics of our support,” Stoltenberg said as he arrived at the meeting.

“We must ensure reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine for the long haul so that we rely less on voluntary contributions and more on NATO commitments, less on short-term offers and more on multi-year pledges.”

Ukraine support tops agenda

Stoltenberg declined to comment on proposals reported by multiple diplomats that he has proposed military support for Ukraine worth €100 billion ($108 billion) over the next five years.

The aim is reportedly to have an aid package finalized in time for a NATO summit which will be held in Washington in July.

A German foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed that the proposals would be discussed over the course of the two-day meeting chaired by Stoltenberg.

The proposals received support from the foreign ministers of NATO members Latvia and Poland, whose countries both share borders with Russian territory.

Latvia’s Krisjanis Karins said the proposal could be funded if allied members committed “a certain percentage of GDP.”

That call was backed by the UK foreign secretary David Cameron who said upon arrival at the meeting that it was “vital that Britain and [NATO] get the weapons and support Ukraine needs” by committing “two percent” of GDP.

What Donald Trump might mean for support for Ukraine

The push for more aid comes amid mounting concern that support for Ukraine’s defensive efforts against Russia’s invasion is stalling and warnings from Kyiv that ammunition stockpiles are running low.

A $60-billion US funding package has been blocked by Republicans in Congress but there are hopes lawmakers could move to pass it in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, the NATO proposals aim to make the procurement and provision of aid to Ukraine less dependant on the US-led “Ramstein Group.”

“Every delay in the provision of support has consequences on the battlefield,” said Stoltenberg.

German news agency DPA cited NATO diplomats as saying they aim to make support for Ukraine less dependent on political developments in individual member states and to shift the burden of responsibility among the alliance.

This was also linked to concerns surrounding the possible reelection of former US President Donald Trump.

In February, he threatened to encourage Moscow to attack NATO members who were not meeting their financial obligations.

Also on the agenda for NATO foreign ministers in Brussels

The Reuters news agency reported diplomats as saying that NATO was looking to take over some of the coordination work from the US-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), also known as the Ramstein group.

To date, the US has taken on the primary responsibility of coordinating arms deliveries to Ukraine, through the UDCG.

Ministers are also expected to discuss the race to replace Stoltenberg. Some had hoped to choose his successor at the talks, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte reportedly having the backing of 90% of members.

However, there is opposition from Hungary and also a surprise challenge from Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.

75 years of NATO

On Thursday there will be a wreath-laying ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding. The defence alliance was established in 1949 in the aftermath of World War II with just 12 members and today now has 32.

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