Russian Black Sea Fleet Fleeing Crimea Upends Putin's Plan

More than two years after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow's grip on Crimea, its crown jewel in Ukraine, is under real strain.

A stark contrast to the painfully-won but noticeable gains Russia has made in mainland Ukraine in recent weeks, "Ukraine has largely won the battle of the Black Sea," retired U.S. Navy vice-admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek.

Russia has taken bruising losses to its Black Sea fleet at Ukraine's hands since February 2022. Moscow has controlled Crimea since annexing the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, but Kyiv has vowed to recapture it.

For the last decade, Russia has intended to use its Black Sea bases in Crimea to project Russian power across the sea towards southern Ukraine, said retired Ukrainian Navy Captain Andrii Ryzhenko.

But this is being undermined by Ukraine's success around Crimea. Russia lost its flagship, the Mosvka, in a flurry of what were thought to be Ukrainian-made Neptune missiles early on in the war, and Kyiv succeeded in taking out a Russian Kilo-class submarine in a dramatic Storm Shadow strike in September 2023.

Ukrainian naval drones destroyed Russia's missile-armed corvette Ivanovets in February, and have successfully attacked a handful of Russia's landing ships.

In mid-February, Kyiv said it targeted the Caesar Kunikov, a large landing ship, near the southern Crimean city of Alupka, southeast of Russia's naval base at Sevastopol. The attack further whittled down Russia's relatively scarce fleet of landing vessels.

"Today we have increased security in the Black Sea and added motivation to our people," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said shortly after the attack. The loss of this type of vessel is restraining any landing operations Russia could mount, Ryzhenko told Newsweek.

Ukraine has extended its reach to east Crimea, including the Russian port of Feodosia and the vital Kerch Bridge connecting the peninsula to Russia's Krasnodar region.

Early on Tuesday, Ukraine's military intelligence agency, known as the GUR, published footage appearing to show home-grown Magura V5 waterborne drones barreling into the Sergei Kotov, one of Russia's four Project 22160 patrol ships. The vessel was near the Kerch Strait, Kyiv said, and local sources reported the closure of the Kerch Bridge overnight.

The vessel "suffered damage to the stern, right and left sides," the GUR added in a post to social media. Russia's Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a Newsweek comment request on Tuesday.

Britain's defense minister, Grant Shapps, said in December that the Kremlin had lost 20 percent of its Black Sea fleet in the previous four months, adding: "Russia's dominance in the Black Sea is now challenged."

Inching East in the Black Sea

Ukraine's persistent attacks — Kyiv typically wielding naval drones and Western-supplied cruise missiles — have shoved Russia east in the Black Sea, threatening Moscow's security around the Crimean Peninsula.

"Russia has no choice but to move east," said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to the head of Ukraine's military, currently serving as president of the American University Kyiv. But Moscow loses its grip on Crimea by doing so, he told Newsweek.

Russia has been forced to expand its port infrastructure in the eastern Black Sea because its facilities around Crimea, such as its main base at Sevastopol, are at risk, Murrett said.

Moscow has shifted some of its resources to Novorossiysk, a Black Sea port city perched in internationally-recognized Russian territory. Reports have also suggested the Kremlin is planning a new military base at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia. This would put Russian Black Sea assets even further from Ukraine's coastline.

Moscow is now far warier of keeping its newer, major vessels in Crimea, and has transferred several to Novorossiysk, Ryzhenko said.

"Two of Russian's basic assumptions prior to the invasion must have been control of air space and control over the naval forces in the Black Sea — both of which they have lost," Rice said. Ukraine has also managed to export millions of tons of grain via the Black Sea.

But this does not mean Ukraine has gained control of these areas. Russia is still dominant across much of the Black Sea, even if it is restrained in the northwestern corner because of Kyiv, Ryzhenko said. This is what is known as a "gray zone," he said, where neither country can establish undisputed control.

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