Russia Aviation Activity Drops after $1BN of Craft Lost in 2024—ISW

Russia has reined in its aerial presence over eastern Ukraine after sustaining double-digit aircraft losses in the past few weeks, according to a new assessment, as Moscow makes further gains westward across the frontlines in the war-torn country.

"Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine," reported U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukraine's military said at the end of February that its forces had destroyed 13 Russian aircraft since February 17. This included 10 Su-34 fighter-bomber jets, two Su-35 jets and one Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft.

On Saturday, Ukraine's air force then said it had downed a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber, just one day after Kyiv said it had taken out another Su-34 close to the Russian-controlled southern city of Mariupol at around 9 a.m. local time.

Although difficult to pin down a precise figure for any Russian aircraft, a single A-50 radar detection plane is worth a ballpark figure of $300 million. Each Su-34 is thought to come with a price tag between approximately $36 and $50 million, and an Su-35 costs in the region of $40 million.

Figures from Ukraine's military show that Russia has lost 18 planes since the start of January, totaling approximately $150 million ahead of February 17.

Added up, this puts Russia's aircraft losses since the start of 2024 at approximately $1 billion. Despite the size of Russia's air force, losing 15 aircraft in just a few weeks amounts to a punishing loss for Moscow. Along with a loss of expensive aircraft, Russia will also have lost vital expertise when pilots are killed as the jets come down.

It is not clear how long Russia will pull back its aerial fleet, the ISW think tank said.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

The ISW had evaluated on Saturday that Moscow's forces appeared "willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine."

Russia has advanced along the northeastern frontlines in recent weeks, including west and south of the Moscow-controlled city of Kreminna. Russia has also gained territory west of Avdiivka, which the Kremlin captured in mid-February.

Moscow is likely attempting to re-impose air superiority around Avdiivka to support its tactical advances, judging that "continued offensive operations with air support outweigh the risk of losing more aircraft," the ISW said on Saturday.

Colonel Yuriy Ignat, spokesperson for Ukraine's air force, told Ukrainska Pravda on Sunday that Russia had reduced its aviation presence across Ukraine.

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