Avdiivka Update As Map Shows Russian Advance

Russian troops are closing in on Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War, whose map shows the state of play near the town in the Donetsk oblast which is key to the Kremlin's goal of controlling Ukraine's Donbas region.

The Washington D.C. think tank said that positional battles had been taking place in the area on Sunday and that Russian troops had made confirmed advances north and east of the town, according to geolocated footage.

Speculation is building that Russia could soon capture Avdiivka, which could allow Moscow's forces to control the highway between nearby Donetsk and Kramatorsk, and improve Moscow's logistical capabilities in the region.

A map from the U.S. think tank shows Russian advances in northern Avdiivka and some Ukrainian gains in the south of the settlement. It also shows earlier gains made by Russia in February further north, towards Stepove.

Pro-Kremlin military blogger Operation Z posted on Telegram that Russian troops had cut Avdiivka into two parts and were "building on their success" as Ukrainian forces were responding by trying to bring in fresh troops.

Military blogger Rybar said Russian troops had come "even closer to cutting off" Ukrainian forces in the town. "The enemy is hurriedly transferring reinforcements to hold the industrial zone near the motor depot which supplies its forces."

However, Kyiv said on Monday that their forces "continue to restrain the enemy, which is not stopping its attempt to surround Avdiivka" around which Ukraine is reported to have repelled 23 Russian attacks.

A Russian milblogger, Severny Veter, described how Moscow's troops were struggling with drones which Ukraine was sending to the area and were ignoring alerts because there were too many of them.

"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin said there is a problem with drones. Has the military industrial complex adjusted? No," he wrote.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the head of Ukraine's Tavria group of forces covering Avdiivka, said on Sunday that Russian forces are "increasingly adding armored groups to assault infantry groups" around the town.

"The situation in Avdiivka is rapidly worsening, with Ukraine facing a significant firepower disadvantage and a critical shortage of military supplies," Leon Hartwell, a senior associate at the London School of Economics IDEAS research center, told Newsweek last week.

"Over the past month alone, Russia has reportedly unleashed more than 600 aerial bombs on the Ukrainian defenders of the city."

"At a psychological level, each advancement made by Russian forces in Ukraine inflicts a severe blow on the country, given the known consequences of Russian occupation, including genocide," he said.

"The capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine."

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