Avdiivka Map Shows Russia's Pincers Closing Around Key Town

The Russian advances reported on the northern and southern flanks of the fortified eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka have left Moscow's forces holding up to 20 percent of the settlement, according to pro-Russia military bloggers, as the Kremlin continues its bloody offensive on the Donetsk front.

The Institute for the Study of War on Wednesday noted milblogger reports of Russian advances along Zaliznychnyi Lane in northwestern Avdiivka, a road that connects the city's northwestern outskirts to the railway line running through its center.

Among those claiming the advances was the Rybar channel, which posted an update reporting "heavy fighting" in the northeastern part of the town.

"In the conditions of urban combat, due to the lack of personnel and the dynamically changing situation, it is difficult to draw an exact demarcation line," Rybar wrote. "Houses and streets can change hands several times a day, since attempts to cut Avdiivka in two are quite obvious and expected by the Ukrainian command."

Newsweek could not independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian defense ministry by email to request comment.

Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets wrote on Telegram that advanced Russian units had reached the Zheleznodorozhny Lane area, "and in the near future, obviously, he will try to break through towards the overpass across the railway."

Success here, Mashovets added, may see the Russians cut "through the entire defense system of the Ukrainian troops in the northern part of the city of Avdiivka." Such a Russian advance, he explained, threatens to sever the ground lines of communication between units in central Avdiivka and those fighting in the sprawling coke plant facility in the northern part of the town.

On the southern edge of the town, Mashovets said Russian forces are conducting "a series of distracting and 'delaying' actions," which includes the so-called "sewer campaign" with which Moscow's troops are trying to undermine and bypass Ukrainian defensive lines.

"Their main goal was to pull part of the forces and assets of the Avdiivka 'garrison' precisely to the southern front of the defense, preferably to the southeastern part of the city," he wrote.

The battle for Avdiivka has become perhaps the fiercest contest over the 2023-2024 winter. The fighting there is reminiscent of the destruction wrought on the Donetsk city of Bakhmut earlier in the full-scale invasion.

Ukrainian member of parliament Oleksandr Merezhko told Newsweek in October that the Kremlin "might be trying to repeat the situation with Bakhmut, and it's ready to sacrifice lots of its human lives."

As in Bakhmut, the Ukrainian approach appears to be a dogged defense to inflict as many casualties on the Russian forces as possible. The fight has become another "meat grinder" for Moscow, but its troops are gaining ground even at high cost.

Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov wrote on Sunday that Avdiivka "increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May," citing alarmed reports from Ukrainian military bloggers on the situation in the fortress city.

Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the War on the Rocks podcast on January 30 that the situation around Avdiivka was "stable," but "trending for the worse in the sense that Russians are making incremental gains." He added: "There is a good chance that Avdiivka will eventually be lost."

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