Putin Facing 'Authoritarian's Dilemma'

Officials in Russia are concealing bad news from Vladimir Putin regarding his forces' efforts in Ukraine it has been reported, with a prominent think tank describing the situation as an "authoritarian's dilemma."

Prominent military blogger Sergey Kolyasnikov wrote on the Telegram social media channel Zergulio that Russia's bureaucracy and its Ministry of Defense (MoD) were deliberately withholding information from the Russian president.

Think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Kolyasnikov's post was likely in response to Russian propagandists' attempts to conceal military failures last week in which kamikaze drones struck a number of Russian T-72 tanks and other fighting vehicles near Novomykhailivka in Donetsk oblast.

The milblogger's post said that the consultative civil society institution Russia's Civic Chamber, created in 2004 to provide accurate information to the president even if it was negative, had failed to do so because its members had decided to keep silent. Putin then created the All-Russian People's Front in 2011 to target the same problem but its members had also started to hide the truth.

Regional officials in Russia concealed failures from Putin and resented voices that undermine these efforts, the post said. This made it almost impossible for milbloggers to visit the front lines in Ukraine and give an unvarnished account of what is happening. It added that the Russian military command also deploys generals to Syria if they had frequent communication with Putin.

The close collaboration between regional media and the authorities prevented any negative information being leaked as part of a culture in Russia where "they want to close access to criticism and talk only about the good," Kolyasnikov said.

The post predicted that milbloggers may start to be arrested after the presidential elections in March, which Putin is expected to win.

In assessing Kolyasnikov's remarks, the ISW said: "Putin continues to face the authoritarian's dilemma, whereby his authoritarian regime is itself systematically preventing him from receiving accurate information about military-political realities."

Putin held a meeting with vetted milbloggers in the Kremlin in June 2023 when he heard their concerns about drone shortages and failures to repel Ukrainian forces in Kherson oblast.

The ISW said on Sunday that this showed he sees the value of milbloggers "as a constructive opposition that checks Russian government and military officials."

This suggests that Putin is unlikely to pursue a mass censorship campaign against milbloggers unless his inner circle convince him they pose an immediate threat to his regime's stability, the Washington, D.C., think tank added.

However, the Kremlin has silenced criticism of the war. In January, milblogger, and former intelligence officer Igor Girkin was sentenced to four years in prison on extremism charges following his vehement criticism of the way the war was being conducted.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry and the Kremlin for comment.

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