Biden's Israel-Gaza Move Is Winning Back Democrats

President Joe Biden's decision to publicly increase pressure on Israel to show greater restraint in its devastating offensive in the Gaza Strip appears to be winning over Democratic voters, according to the results of a new poll on the White House's handling of the crisis.

The survey, published by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research on Thursday, shows Democratic opinions of the president rebounding after a drop in approval in the early stages of Israel's campaign to "eradicate" Hamas, following the Islamist group's October 7 infiltration attack.

Fifty-nine percent of Democrats now approve of Biden's approach to the conflict, the poll results showed, up from 50 percent in November. The latest figures put Biden roughly level with his 57 percent approval rating among Democrats on the Israeli-Palestinian issue from August, before the latest conflagration.

The president scored lower among Democrats for his handling of the Gaza war compared with his general performance. Seventy-five percent of Democrats said Biden is doing well as president, up from 69 percent last month. Biden's approval rating among U.S. adults is 41 percent, close to the lowest score of his presidency to date.

The latest AP poll roughly lines up with other major recent survey findings of around 60 percent of Democratic voters in favor of Biden's handling of the Gaza war, as analysts look for evidence of rifts in the big tent party.

Newsweek has contacted the White House by email to request comment.

The Gaza issue is a thorny one for the White House, with Democrats—and particularly voters of color and young people—more likely than Republicans to condemn the Israeli offensive that has so far lasted two months. Some 16,000 Palestinians have been killed in the operation, per figures from the Gaza Health Ministry cited by the Associated Press.

Biden was full-throated in his backing for Israel in the days after the October 7 massacre by Hamas, in which about 1,200 people were killed and hundreds taken back into Gaza as hostages. Biden's support for the Israeli response even earned him the nickname "Genocide Joe" among some pro-Palestinian critics.

In recent weeks, Biden and his top officials have privately and publicly been urging Israeli restraint while working to free those held prisoner in Gaza. Indeed, the U.S. was reportedly instrumental in the week-long ceasefire that allowed the release of 110 hostages.

The uptick in Democratic support for Biden coincided with increasing expressions of concern from the White House, plus Biden's emphasis on the need for a revitalization of the inert two-state solution and warnings that Israeli should not permanently occupy the Gaza Strip.

Julie Norman, a professor of politics and international relations at University College London, told Newsweek: "We should all be cautious to read too much into the changing polls on this issue." The president's approval rating, she added, is likely to "continue to go up and down" as the situation develops.

Still, Norman said, "the shift in messaging from the White House" has helped Biden's Democratic polling, even if it is "too little too late" to reach those in the progressive wing of the party most outraged by the Israeli offensive.

American success in securing the partial hostage release, Norman said, was a key win for the White House. "Many Americans recognize the U.S. role in pushing those negotiations forward and securing that kind of pause," she said. "I do think Biden got a bump with that."

But the Gaza crisis is not over. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) units are currently pushing into the southern part of the Gaza Strip, having largely completed their occupation of the north. The IDF is focusing its efforts on Khan Younis, Gaza's second-largest city and home to Hamas' leader in the Strip, Yahya Sinwar, plus its military commander, Mohammed Deif.

The civilian death toll is again rising, with Israel refusing to commit to "no-strike" zones set aside for Palestinian civilians, noting the tendency of Hamas and other armed groups to use such areas to launch attacks against Israeli forces and civilians. National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday the U.S. expects Israel to respect the safe zones.

Difficult questions remain as to the future of the Strip, with Israeli leaders vowing to retain security control over the Palestinian territory. Efforts to build an international coalition to oversee Gaza's recovery have so far produced little, while the danger of regional escalation with Iran and its network of local allies still looms.

"The numbers are a little tricky, because the Democratic Party itself is rather split on this issue," Norman said. "So, when we see some people may be coming back around, you have other people who are not as happy.

"We just need to be a little bit cautious of seeing this as turning the corner, or somehow changing the—especially the left's—opinion of Biden on this.

"Biden's support for Israel will appeal for many traditional Democrats, as well as many independents and even some more moderate Republicans who are maybe more in the anti-Trump position. But on the left, I think it'll be interesting to see how resonant it still is a year from now."

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