Putin's Kh-47 'Dagger' Missiles May Be Losing Their Edge

Russian President Vladimir Putin's highly-touted Kh-24 Kinzhal ("Dagger") hypersonic missile does not appear to be living up to its billing in Ukraine, as Moscow continues its long-range winter bombardment campaign against Kyiv and other major cities.

Russian forces have regularly used Kinzhals—described by Putin in 2018 as among Moscow's "invincible" weapons—to strike Ukrainian cities and infrastructure targets nationwide throughout their two-year invasion of the neighboring country.

But Ukrainian forces have repeatedly proven able to intercept Kinzhal missiles using United States-made Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, the first of which arrived in the spring of 2023. Ukrainian analysts have also noted a growing tally of Kinzhals that make it to their targets but fail to explode.

Yurii Ihnat, the Ukrainian Air Force's spokesperson, told Newsweek on Thursday that "there are signs" that Russia's much-hyped weapon is not performing as well as expected, though added theories as to why are little more than guesses.

"'Daggers' fly by more and more often," Ihnat said. "Only the Patriot beats it."

In October, the British Defense Ministry noted that the weapon's performance in Ukraine to date had been "poor," assessing it was still in the "operational testing" phase.

"It remains highly capable on paper, able to fly at hypersonic speeds and evade modern air defense systems, although there almost certainly needs to be significant improvement in how Russia uses it to achieve this potential," the ministry wrote.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.

Ukraine has been able to down around one-third of all Kinzhals fired into the country since February 2022, according to The Kyiv Post. Notable recent successes have been credited to Patriot batteries and new electronic warfare measures.

On January 2, for example, 10 Kinzhals were among 100 missiles fired into Ukraine. None of the Kinzhals in that barrage found their targets. On January 8 and 13, around 40 percent of the Kinzhals fired into Ukraine were shot down.

"Russian missiles are becoming of lower quality and do not reach their targets," Ihnat said after the second attack.

Air-launched hypersonic missiles rely on continuous satellite navigation data, without which they cannot successfully maneuver in flight to avoid anti-missile defenses. Russian hypersonic weapons use the GLONASS global navigation satellite system. But the network is reportedly lacking, with only 24 of its 133 satellites believed to be operational. Electronic warfare measures could further undermine planned trajectories.

Ukrainian authorities have reported finding several unexploded Kinzhals. Of the 10 downed on January 2, for example, three warheads failed to function. The remaining seven did explode but missed their targets.

The Ukrainian Defense Express publication suggested the apparent dud rate may be down to the lack of a conventional impact fuse in the Kinzhal warhead. Instead, the high explosives inside are detonated by a wired two-stage electronic system directed by a computerized control unit within the missile.

The system's first stage comes online shortly after launch when the missile has traveled a safe distance from the aircraft firing it. The second stage then prepares the munition for impact. An interception by air defense or electronic warfare could theoretically disrupt the detonation and targeting systems.

Chinese analysts published an analysis of the Kinzhal's combat performance earlier this month, finding the supposedly ground-breaking weapon lacking.

"There is more and more evidence showing that what the U.S. and Ukraine say on this matter is true," the analysts said of reports that Patriot missiles had downed Kinzhals.

Comparing the weapon to "a real hypersonic missile," the Chinese analysts were not impressed. The platform's lack of maneuverability during flight and its ballistic trajectory means that even existing anti-missile platforms—like the Patriots—can intercept it.

"If Kinzhal genuinely was a hypersonic missile as Putin claims—that is, one capable of carrying out complex maneuvers at more than Mach 5—then it would be extremely difficult to intercept with current anti-missile systems," military expert David Hambling previously told Newsweek.

The system may be better described as a ballistic missile capable of in-flight maneuver, Hambling added.

With Western sanctions biting, there has been much skepticism as to Russia's ability to continue advanced weapon production. Kinzhals, for example, contain scores of components imported from the European Union and North America.

"The 'Dagger' was not produced and equipped in large quantities," the Chinese analysts wrote in their recent analysis. "After a year and a half of expenditure, there may be very few left in the inventory."

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