Avdiivka on Edge as Russians Proclaim 'Breakthrough'

Russian military bloggers are touting a significant advance of Moscow's forces on the southern flank of the embattled fortress settlement of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, which in recent months has become a focus of Russian attacks.

Prominent pro-war Telegram milbloggers including the Rybar channel reported a "breakthrough" of Russian troops into the southern residential part of Avdiivka. Newsweek cannot independently verify the report and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

According to Rybar, Moscow's forces are making progress in the town's southern residential sector because of its many small private dwellings. These make for easier objectives than the large and resilient industrial facilities in the northern part of the settlement, over which Russian and Ukrainian troops have been fighting for several months.

The Thirteenth Telegram channel, meanwhile, claimed that "battles are taking place on the streets" of Avdiivka following recent Russian advances. Moscow's forces, the channel reported, used "the tactics of undermining"—digging tunnels under enemy positions, packing them with explosives, and detonating them—to assist their movement.

The Two Majors milblogger reported "heavy fighting" in Avdiivka near the Tsarskaya Okhota recreation center in the south of the town, "after the capture of which our troops advanced to the outskirts" of the settlement.

There has been similar analysis from the Ukrainian side.

"While the northern part of Avdiivka is shielded by the AKHZ (industrial buildings), the southern area is comprised of one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire," the pro-Kyiv Tatarigami_UA channel wrote on X—formerly known as Twitter. "If unable to capture the area, Russians erase it with artillery, deploy infantry, and seize the rubble."

The Ukrainian General Staff on Tuesday reported that Russian forces are constantly "trying to surround Avdiivka," but that Ukrianian defenders "continue to restrain the enemy."

"Our soldiers firmly hold the defense, inflicting significant losses on the occupiers," the General Staff wrote in an update posted to Telegram. "Thus, during the past day, the defense forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Stepovoy, Avdiivka, and another 7 attacks near Pervomaiskyi and Nevelskyi, Donetsk region."

The Institute for the Study of War noted "marginal tactical advances during intensified offensive efforts" around Avdiivka in recent days, describing the clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces as "positional engagements."

"Geolocated footage published on January 23 indicates that Russian forces advanced in western Stepove," northwest of Avdiivka, the ISW's Tuesday update read.

Avdiivka has been a focus of fighting throughout the full-scale invasion, and indeed since Moscow's troops first entered Ukrainian territory in Crimea and the Donbas in 2014. It sits on the edge of the Russian- and separatist-held city of Donetsk, a key political and logistical goal for both sides.

If Russia can seize Avdiivka, it would eliminate a significant Ukrainian salient in the front line and potentially open up a route to the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk—which has become the administrative capital of the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region—some 43 miles to the north.

Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek in October that Moscow "might be trying to repeat the situation with Bakhmut, and it's ready to sacrifice lots of its human lives," referring to the devastating but ultimately successful seizure of another Donetsk city in 2023.

"As a dictator he desperately needs to show any 'success' on the front to the Russian population on the eve of the presidential elections," Merezhko said of Putin, noting the March poll.

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