Ukraine War Maps Show Ground Won, Lost This Week Amid Russian Bakhmut Push

Russian forces have intensified their assaults along the eastern front towards Bakhmut ahead of larger planned offensive operations. This is according to the U.S.-based independent think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose maps show the latest state of play in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Command spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo said on Friday that his country's troops were destroying Russian tanks and armored vehicles, but that Moscow still could draw on a "large reserve of resources." Newsweek contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email on Saturday for comment.

Fityo added Russia had stepped up assaults in the Kupiansk-Lyman and Bakhmut directions; both Kyiv and Moscow-affiliated military observers say that Russian forces are readying themselves for imminent larger-scale actions in the Lyman direction.

The ISW said on Friday that Russian forces will likely conduct both localized offensive operations and larger offensive efforts to force Ukraine to commit dwindling equipment and troops to defensive efforts. The think tank has previously said that Moscow will step up efforts in the coming weeks to capture Kupiansk.

One map from the ISW shows how, on January 18, Russian forces had advanced northeast and south of Bakhmut, towards the towns of Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka. Newsweek has been unable to verify territorial gains.

Another map from Friday of the same Donetsk oblast shows how Russian forces had captured Vesele, north of Avdiivka, where they have been fighting an offensive since October. The graphic also shows Russian advances west of Donetsk city and north of Klishchiivka.

Meanwhile, U.K. newspaper The Financial Times reported Russian forces are looking to conduct a large-scale offensive in Ukraine in the summer, citing Ukrainian officials.

Moscow's aim with the push would be to capture the rest of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, which Vladimir Putin declared in September 2022 to have been annexed but which Moscow does not fully control.

The FT report on Friday also said that Russian forces would try to recapture Kharkiv from where they retreated in 2022. German outlet BILD reported similar Russian plans in December, which appear to be consistent with their localized offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The ISW said that, even if Russia does not make big territorial gains with such a push, Ukraine risks expending valuable resources on defending against an offensive.

U.S. officials say Ukraine will have to fight a long war and that Kyiv needs as much military assistance as possible this year and next, with positional fighting continuing until 2026.

The ISW said the war is not a stable stalemate and "could be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West and Russia." This meant that a cessation of Western aid to Ukraine would likely lead to the eventual collapse of Ukraine's ability to hold off Russia, whose forces could advance all the way to NATO's border.

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