Russia's Heavy Losses Could Scupper Golden Opportunity

Russian forces have the chance to press westward in the coming weeks, but they are unlikely to be able to capitalize on a brief window of opportunity to snatch more territory from Ukraine.

On Thursday, the U.K. Defense Ministry said Ukraine was experiencing a spell of cold weather that would likely last for several weeks. The freezing conditions will harden the ground and make cross-country maneuvers easier, it said.

Frozen ground makes using tanks and armored vehicles in operations much easier compared with muddy conditions and rainy weather. Ukraine's notorious muddy season, also known as the rasputitsa, has complicated the fighting several times during nearly two years of war.

"Cold weather doesn't really make you happier," Ukraine's Major Viktor Tregubov told Newsweek back in October as the rainy, muddy season set in for the fall. "If we're talking about combat readiness, autumn rains and winter cold changes everything, and limits the offensive potential for both sides."

Despite recent Russian advances in certain sectors of the front line, Moscow will likely fail to make the most of the more favorable weather conditions before a thaw in March, experts have suggested.

After Ukrainian forces retreated to the northern flank of the Donetsk village of Marinka, southwest of the embattled town of Avdiivka, in late December, the Institute for the Study of War said the capture of the settlement was only a "limited tactical gain for Russia."

Moscow would only be able to capitalize on the gain if "Russian forces have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward movement, which they show no signs of having done," the think tank said.

The same principle applies to the brief stint of more favorable winter weather conditions currently settling in across Ukraine. Russia could mount a concerted push against a tired Ukraine, but it lacks the resources to do so.

Russia could push on the Ukrainian front lines, and there have been some rumors of large-scale attacks in the works, according to Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. But if they did launch a series of attacks, Moscow would likely hope to whittle away at the support Ukraine is receiving from its Western backers, he told Newsweek.

The intelligence published by the British Defense Ministry is accurate, but both Russia and Ukraine have "exhausted their offensive maneuver potential" for the moment, added Ed Arnold, research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank. It is unlikely there will be much movement along the front lines during this period, as Moscow and Kyiv are focusing on reconstituting their forces, he told Newsweek.

The problems weighing down on Russian forces will weigh on Ukraine, too. Snowfall will restrict both sides' ability to maneuver, and fewer daylight hours means Ukrainian and Russian troops need to rely more on night vision and cold weather equipment, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on Thursday.

Kyiv knows this.

"Snow and frost will affect the nature of hostilities in the near future," Dmytro Lazutkin, spokesperson for Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, told Newsweek.

The 47th is currently fighting around the embattled town of Avdiivka, the site of the bitterest fighting so far this year, more than three months after Russia launched an offensive around the town.

Snow will restrict vehicle movement, particularly for wheeled vehicles and off-road, Lazutkin said. The biting cold can also affect infantry morale, he said.

It is hard to predict the impact of the coming weather conditions, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria grouping of forces covering Avdiivka, told Newsweek.

Mertens said Ukraine is likely using the colder months to rebuild and train their mobile forces ahead of the inevitable summer fighting.

"It seems that the Ukrainians might be better prepared for winter, but I think they will refrain from major operations," he said.

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