Ukraine War Map Shows Russian Push for New 'Buffer Zone' in Kharkiv

Moscow's grinding offensive in northeastern Ukraine may be intended to create a new "buffer zone" to protect Russian frontier settlements being bombarded by Kyiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has suggested, as the Kremlin continues its pursuit of new territorial gains on largely static battlefields.

Russia's offensive in northeastern Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts have achieved little success at high cost, but Moscow's forces are still trying to advance along the front running between the three key cities of Kupiansk, Svatove, and Kreminna.

Success here would accomplish the vital Moscow goal of full occupation of Luhansk Oblast, which since 2014 has been split between Kyiv's control and that of local separatist forces armed, funded, and militarily supported by Russia. Pushing Ukrainian lines back may also provide some respite for the Russian city of Belgorod.

"Russian sources are reviving longstanding calls for a large-scale Russian offensive operation in Kharkiv Oblast to create a 'buffer zone' with Belgorod Oblast, despite the Russian military's likely inability to conduct an operation to seize significant territory in Kharkiv Oblast in the near term," the Washington D.C.-based think tank said in an update Tuesday evening.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Belgorod and the surrounding region have repeatedly been attacked by Ukrainian drones, artillery, and even Kyiv-aligned Russian rebel military units. Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Monday that some 300 people had been evacuated from the city amid cross-border exchanges of fire.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said this week that Russian "troops will continue to do everything to first reduce this threat and then fully eliminate it," in reference to recent strikes on the city.

Peskov's remarks, ISW said, have helped revive long-held ambitions among pro-war Russian military bloggers "to create a 'buffer zone' up to 15 kilometers [around 9 miles] in depth in Kharkiv Oblast to push Ukrainian [multiple launch rocket systems] and artillery away from the international border with Belgorod Oblast."

In such an effort, Russian forces would drive across the shared Ukraine-Russia border north of Kharkiv, looking to recapture territory lost to Ukraine's fall 2022 counteroffensive operation.

"Russian ultranationalists routinely called for a similar operation in summer 2023 amid widespread discontent about limited cross-border raids by pro-Ukrainian forces into Belgorod Oblast," ISW added.

But the think tank was skeptical of such an effort. "A Russian incursion 15 kilometers in depth and several hundred kilometers in width would be a massive operational undertaking that would require a grouping of forces far larger and significantly better resourced than what Russian forces currently have concentrated along the entire international border with Ukraine, least of all in Belgorod Oblast."

The Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line has long been one of the hottest portions of the front. Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, warned in December that Russian forces have identified the settlement of Synkivka in Kharkiv Oblast as a key target, hoping that its capture may allow the blockade of nearby Kupiansk.

The ISW has said that Moscow's units "may intensify efforts" towards Kupiansk, though added that Russian forces will be limited in what they can do from Belgorod.

"The Russian military is likely currently able to conduct only tactical-level actions into Kharkiv Oblast from Belgorod Oblast, which at most would serve as feints to draw and fix Ukrainian forces away from a possible Russian operational effort in the Kupiansk direction," the think tank wrote.

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