Joe Biden's Dangerous New Red Line

Global oil and gas prices are rising due to a steady drip of attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea by Houthi militants in Yemen, with the Iran-aligned group looking to undermine Israeli, American, and broader Western interests amid the Israel-Hamas showdown in Gaza.

BP said on Monday it would pause all shipments through the Red Sea, citing a "deteriorating security situation." Shipping giants MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have all also said they will avoid using the Suez Canal route into the Red Sea due to safety concerns. Evergreen Group's container shipping operation said Monday it would suspend Israeli imports and exports "with immediate effect until further notice."

The unfolding maritime crisis poses another thorny problem for the White House, which is said to be juggling divergent demands from its regional allies. The UAE, Bloomberg reported, is pushing for direct military action and the redesignation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization. But Saudi Arabia favors a more diplomatic approach, fearing further Houthi escalation.

There is no easy fix to the Houthi problem. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been at war with the organization since 2015, working in vain to restore the Yemeni government overthrown in 2014. The group is armed and trained extensively by Iran, but retains significant operational independence.

On Monday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian to enhance security for shipping transiting the conflict region, with the participation of the U.K., Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Seychelles and Spain.

"The Red Sea is a critical waterway that has been essential to freedom of navigation and a major commercial corridor that facilitates international trade," Austin said.

Michael Allen, who served as special assistant to President George W. Bush and the senior director at the National Security Council, told Newsweek the situation is "getting more and more tense."

"There's so many different fronts," Allen—who is now the managing director of the Beacon Global Strategy strategic advisory firm—added, noting the Gaza campaign, fighting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, shooting along the Israeli-Lebanese border, militia strikes on American targets in Iraq and Syria, and now regular attacks in the Red Sea.

Allen suggested that an expansion of the war remains unlikely, but noted that "the chances are increasing."

"If the Houthi are able to get a shot off and actually hit one of our destroyers—the missile defense fails, or something gets through—there's going to be hell to pay," Allen said.

"President Biden, as much as he doesn't want to escalate—and that does seem to be the overriding thesis of his foreign policy if you want to stretch that to Ukraine and the Middle East—I don't see how he's going to avoid it."

"If they land a punch, Biden is going to have to hit back very, very hard."

The White House has appeared reluctant to respond to the steady drip of attacks on U.S. targets in Syria and Iraq in recent months, but did eventually order several airstrikes on Iran-linked targets in both countries. One American civilian contractor was killed in the series of incidents.

Another death in the Red Sea—whether military or civilian—may force Biden's hand, Allen said. "If they kill a U.S. citizen, I think that is Biden's trigger to hit back."

Thus far, Western military vessels have weathered Houthi attacks. The USS Carney has repeatedly shot down drones and ballistic missiles fired from Yemen, while the French Languedoc frigate has also intercepted Houthi munitions.

But with each new attack comes new risks. "It's a math problem," Allen said.

Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.