Ukraine War Maps Show Ground Won, Lost Amid Fears of New Russian Push

Russian forces may be readying themselves for a push to seize the Kharkiv oblast city of Kupiansk, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said, as its maps show the latest state of play in Ukraine.

However, the Washington D.C. think tank said the configuration of Moscow's troops so far did not indicate an offensive "along the entire Kupyansk-Lyman line," akin to the one similar to Russia's failed offensive effort during 2023. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

Ukrainian forces liberated Kupiansk from Russian occupation in the September 2022 during its counteroffensive. The city's role as a logistics hub for pushes further south has made it a target for renewed Russian offensives.

The ISW said on Friday that Russia had slowly built up reconstituted and well-rested units in the area to intensify localized operations that began last October. These consisted mostly of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District, which have been reinforced through Russian mobilization efforts. These forces have not committed substantial efforts to current fighting and so have avoided the high reported losses of Russian troops in the Donetsk oblast city of Avdiivka, towards which Moscow launched an offensive in October.

The ISW said that conditions are conducive for Russian forces to intensify operations in the Kupiansk direction and make more significant territorial gains than other areas that Russian forces are attempting to seize.

Kyiv had said that Russia aims to capture Kupiansk and Borova, west of Svatove, during the winter. The ISW said this could force Ukrainian troops off the east bank of the Oskil River and set conditions for future offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

An ISW map of that part of the front shows Russia advances south of Kupyansk between January 2 and January 5, towards the towns which include Karmazynivka, Nevske, Terny and Torkse. Another ISW map shows other Russian advances in the Donetsk oblast including slight gains north of Avdiivka.

The British newspaper The Telegraph reported on Thursday that a Ukrainian military source said that Russia may conduct a ground offensive by January 15.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fityo dismissed this, saying so there was no change in the composition of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. "We do not observe troops on the border or strike groups," Fityo said, according to Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne.

The ISW said these comments chime with its assessment that Russian forces may "intensify offensive operations, although not launch a full-scale offensive operation."

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