Ukraine Maps Show Russia's Gains Rising Five-Fold Over 2024 Average

Russian forces' accelerated gains during August in the Donetsk region have dwarfed incremental advances they had made in the rest of this year.

In an update on Sunday, the Telegram channel Deep State, which is an open-source outlet whose maps of the front line are widely cited, showed the extent of Russian advances toward Pokrovsk. This is a road and rail hub that is key for Ukraine's military to supply other Ukrainian-held outposts in the region.

In sharing the Deep State map, Ukrainian Telegram channel Shrike News reported how Russian advances in the zone of Pokrovsk, Niu-York, Avdiivka, and Staromykhailivka had been relatively gradual from the start of the year.

However, Moscow's August gains of 93 square miles were nearly five times higher than the monthly average of 21 square miles in the first seven months of the year. Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries for comment on the figures.

Deep State also reported that Ukraine's operational command had blamed the soldiers and the battalion commander of the 11th Motorized Infantry Battalion of the 59th Brigade for the loss of the village of Karlivka.

The latest update by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also showed Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction. The think tank's map released Sunday showed that Moscow's forces had advanced west of Krasnohorivka that day, east of Selydove on Saturday and had seized Hrodivka on Friday.

The reported acceleration of Russian gains has coincided with Ukraine's launching of an incursion into Russia's Kursk region where Kyiv has said that it now controls around 500 square miles of territory. There are questions over whether deploying troops away from the Donetsk front line will pay off for Ukraine.

"Ukraine took a gamble in Kursk by committing its limited reserves to that operation and also pulling various units off the line, including some forces defending near Pokrovsk and Toretsk," John Hardie told Newsweek. He is deputy director of the Russia program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

"That has given Russia a greater opportunity to make gains in those areas in the Donetsk oblast," Hardie said. "It does put Ukraine in a tough position in the Donetsk oblast."

Much depends on how quickly Russian forces can reach Pokrovsk and the losses that Moscow can endure in its push for the city will determine how far they go elsewhere.

"If the Ukrainians can make Russia take heavy losses trying to take the city as they did in Avdiivka to the southeast, they can sap Russia's potential," Hardie said.

"Conversely, if the Russians can continue to press relatively quickly and not take as many heavy losses, they could have more potential to try to push to the southwest part of Donetsk oblast, also pushing up from near Vuhledar.

"They could try to push northeast into the Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka area and west into Dnipropetrovsk oblast," Hardie said. "So there are different options, and I think the situation is quite worrisome."

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