Kyiv Braces for Russia's 'Huge' Retaliation

Ukraine is preparing for a "huge" Russian response as Kyiv's forces advance deeper into the border Kursk region, although it is not yet clear what this retaliation will look like.

"Russia will feel the need to issue a very tough response, something huge, to show to the world that it is omnipotent and that something like Kursk will not go unpunished," an unnamed senior Ukrainian defense source told The Times of London on Sunday.

Questions are swirling about how Moscow is likely to react after regular Ukrainian forces crossed from the country's northeastern Sumy region into Kursk last Tuesday. The Ukrainians quickly gained territory as Russia scrambled to respond to the most significant advance into its territory since the start of full-scale war nearly two and a half years ago.

Public messaging from Russian officials has insisted that Moscow stanched the Ukrainian advance, but reports from Russia's government on Sunday indicated that fighting was ongoing around villages up to 20 miles from Ukraine's border, including Obshchii Kolodez.

On Monday, Russia's Defense Ministry said Ukraine had attempted to "break through" around Kauchuk, a village just east of Obshchii Kolodez, deep in Russian territory, in the past day. Moscow said it had destroyed a tank and eight of Ukraine's U.S.-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Newsweek could not independently verify this report.

Pieces of footage widely circulated on social media have appeared to show Ukrainian soldiers tearing down Russian flags in Kursk villages, some replaced with Kyiv's yellow and blue flag. Moscow has also launched a "counterterrorism operation" in several border regions as part of efforts to beat back Ukrainian troops. It is led by the Federal Security Service (FSB), the principal successor of the Soviet-era KGB.

The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, said Sunday that Ukraine had likely advanced west and to the northwest in Kursk in the past few days.

Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region, said during a Monday meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine had seized control of 28 settlements, with 2,000 residents unaccounted for in these villages.

Around 121,000 people have been evacuated from the Kursk border areas, Smirnov said. Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of the neighboring Belgorod region, separately said on Monday that regional authorities had begun evacuating residents close to the border.

Russian authorities have "been severely embarrassed, and the loss of territory and evacuation of civilians will play poorly back in Russia as evidence they 'can't defend themselves,'" said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank.

Putin called the operation a "large-scale provocation" last week, saying on Monday that Moscow must "drive the enemy from our territories," according to a Kremlin readout.

Kyiv officials have largely avoided commenting on the cross-border push, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referred to "actions to push the war out into the aggressor's territory" on Saturday.

The exact objectives of the operation remain murky, although some have speculated that the push into Kursk could set Ukraine up in a better negotiating position. Or it could hammer home the proximity of the war to Russia's population while forcing Moscow to pull assets away from the fiercest front-line battles in the east.

"The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border," an unnamed Ukrainian official told Agence France-Presse.

Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russia's Foreign Ministry, said on Sunday that the incursion was designed to intimidate Russian civilians and that it made "no sense from a military point of view."

"A tough response from the Russian Armed Forces will not be long in coming," Zakharova added in a statement posted to the messaging app Telegram.

This retaliation "won't just be four missiles," the source told The Times. Russia may fire "hundreds" of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as launching the infamous Shahed kamikaze drones that have menaced Ukraine since the early months of the war, the source suggested.

Ukraine has already borne the brunt of a large-scale aerial assault from Russia. Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that a father and his 4-year-old son had been killed during overnight missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

Ukrainian politician Oleksiy Goncharenko said that Ukraine's cities are already accustomed to large-scale bombardment. "I don't think that there will be some special retaliation," he told Newsweek.

Russia could hike up slightly its strikes on Kyiv or other sites in Ukraine, he said, but it appears unlikely Russia will launch an offensive into Sumy or further increase the pressure on Ukrainian positions along the eastern front.

Russia may opt to increase attacks on civilian centers and hammer Ukraine with glide bombs, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to the Ukrainian military and current president of American University Kyiv.

However, Russian aircraft launching these bombs must contend with Ukrainian-operated man-portable air defenses and newly delivered F-16s with long-range air-to-air missiles, Rice told Newsweek.

Another option would be allowing Ukraine to continue on into Kursk so the Russian military can target large numbers of Ukrainian fighters on Russian soil, suggested Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in the War Studies Department at King's College London. It may look bad politically for Russia, she told Newsweek, but this strategy could have some military merit.

Otherwise, Russia could double down in its slow but steady gains toward the strategic eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk and elsewhere in Donetsk, Miron said.

Ivan Stupak, formerly of Ukraine's security service, suggested senior Kremlin officials would not opt for any continuation of Russia's current grinding offensive as a form of vengeance for Kursk. They would need something larger scale that is clearly a fresh, direct hit back at Ukraine, he told Newsweek.

Ultimately, Russia faces a "very difficult choice" in crafting a response that sends a strong signal to Western countries supporting Ukraine—and supplying Kyiv with weapons—and also avoids open escalation with NATO, Miron said.

Many in the Biden administration don't fear escalation, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, but some U.S. officials are worried that Russia may greatly escalate missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Ukraine's next steps are similarly unclear.

Retired Australian army major general Mick Ryan argued in a post to social media that Ukraine could attempt to hold on to the Kursk territory it has seized until negotiations take place, partially withdraw from Kursk or fully pull back into Ukrainian territory. Each option comes with a different level of risk to the troops and varying outcomes, Ryan said.

RUSI's Savill said: "While the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative about being on the defensive, it seems unlikely they would want to sustain a large incursion for months. They will have a decision to make about the best time to trade in the ground they have captured, and to what end."

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