Putin's Red Lines Keep Getting Breached

The incursion into Russia's southwestern region of Kursk by Ukrainian forces may test Vladimir Putin's idea of the Kremlin's "red lines" in the war he started.

So-called "red line" statements made by Russian officials may have dwindled from 24 in 2022 to 15 last year, according to Kyiv Post analysis, but the notion of an uncrossable limit for Moscow was again invoked this week by Russian officials and commentators regarding F-16s arriving in Ukraine.

The West's donation of the advanced aircraft was delayed by fears of escalation but is part of a graduation of Western weapon supply to Kyiv from Javelin and Stinger missiles to HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) and M777 Howitzers.

The U.S. ignoring Russian warnings against supplying longer-range ATACMS missiles and Patriot missile systems was also not met with any major Moscow response.

But the state of emergency and evacuation of thousands of residents in Kursk point to a more comprehensive operation than prior cross-border skirmishes in Belgorod, raising concerns about whether it could lead to the escalation the West wants to prevent.

"Ukraine's allies have constantly been concerned about escalation in several situations," Emil Kastehelmi, an open-source intelligence analyst and military expert, told Newsweek.

"Comments have been heard from Moscow that have tried to influence the aid policy of the West. The escalation narrative has proven to be quite effective and continues to do so today."

Ukraine's incursion starting Tuesday reportedly involved multiple units, including its elite 22nd Mechanized Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigades. Moscow is reportedly moving Pantsir self-propelled, medium-range surface-to-air defense systems to defend the Kursk nuclear power plant (NPP) where explosions were heard, the Kyiv Post reported.

"There is no clear proof of Ukraine hitting the Kursk NPP, and it's not a likely goal of this operation, as it is still very far away from the border region," said Kastehelmi.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian armored vehicles had advanced over six miles inside Russia's border and captured 11 settlements. One estimate was that Ukraine now advanced over 130 square miles.

"Western equipment is also involved in the Kursk operation. Even now, Western armored vehicles are striking Russian troops on Russian soil," said Kastehelmi. "However, this is not exceptional, as Western equipment was also used in the attacks on Belgorod in the spring of 2023."

"Russia did not escalate then and will not escalate now just because of Western equipment. Russia's power is already firmly tied to Ukraine, and it currently does not have the kind of forces at its disposal to escalate the war to a completely new level," he added.

Acting Kursk Governor Alexey Smirnov said that the situation on Russia's border with Ukraine was "complicated" and that six Ukrainian drones and five missiles had been downed over the region overnight.

Meanwhile, Russian officials are trying to present the operation as significant Ukrainian escalation while trying to play down its implications so as not to risk discontent among the Russian population, the ISW said.

But former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called on Russia to respond by advancing into Ukraine and capture Kyiv, Odesa and other cities.

"I'm less worried Putin's 'red lines' which shift constantly, and would say that the Ukrainian operations across the border in the Kursk region were largely preventative because of Russian activity right across the border," retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, deputy director of the Syracuse University Institute for Security Policy and Law, told Newsweek.

It comes as pro-Moscow military bloggers wrote on Telegram that mercenaries from the Wagner Group, which was in the headlines for being hit in an ambush in Mali, were being deployed to the Kursk region.

"Russia uses all kinds of expressions about this war, but it is well known there that it is a war which Russian soil does not enjoy any special protection from Ukraine's point of view," said Kastehelmi.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.

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