Russia Map Shows Over 130 Square Miles Now Under Ukraine's Control

Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defense lines and a stronghold in their incursion into the Kursk region. This is according to the Washington, D.C., think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) whose map outlines the latest state of play.

Clashes erupted on Tuesday in the region bordering Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region. While anti-Kremlin militia groups have previously launched cross-border raids into the border region of Belgorod, this incursion involves multiple Ukrainian units, including reportedly its elite 22nd Mechanized Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigades.

The ISW said Wednesday that geolocated footage showed Ukrainian armored vehicles had advanced to positions just over six miles inside Russia's border, while Russian sources reported that 11 settlements had been captured.

Ukrainian forces are also reportedly trying to advance along the Sudzha-Korenovo highway and are now fighting on the outskirts of those two settlements. The ISW map also showed how Ukrainian forces had taken Russian prisoners of war near Sudzha, which the think tank said numbered around 40.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets said that, in response, a unit of Chechnya-based 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment has been deployed directly to the Sudzhenskyi district.

Independent Russian news outlet Agentstvo posted its own map of the reported Ukrainian gains, which it said was almost identical to ISW map. "This area covers 350 sq km (130 square miles)" Agentstvo said—roughly the size of Philadelphia or Atlanta.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment over the incursion, with the strategic goals remaining unclear.

The X account Tatarigami_UA, a former Ukrainian officer and founder of Frontelligence Insight, said on X that it "could be a serious mistake given the situation in the Donbas, however, the situation can quickly change, proving me wrong."

"I currently have serious reservations about the logistical capabilities needed to sustain deep advancements into Russian territory," read the post to 177,000 followers. It said that Russia is likely to respond using internal reserves located in Kursk, Moscow, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts.

In a Substack article post on Thursday, retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan said the Ukrainian cross-border attack "shows that surprise is still possible" in the war and that Kyiv might be trying "to slow or kill Russian momentum in its offensives."

The operation might also force Russia to reconsider their force dispositions elsewhere on the front line, shift the narrative on the war to one more positive for Ukraine, and boost morale in the Ukrainian population.

Another objective, according to Ryan, might be to "grab as much territory as possible in case Ukraine is forced into some kind of negotiated settlement at the end of 2024 or in early 2025."

However, Russian military bloggers have condemned Russia's military command for not preventing the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk and that Russia's border defenses were overestimated.

One prominent miblogger, Rybar, wrote that, despite changes in Russia's military command, "what is happening in the Kursk region is further proof of strategic miscalculations," as well as of nepotism.

Meanwhile, Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov played down the incursion, saying that it was largely under control. He added that Russian forces will defeat Ukrainian forces and reach the Kursk Oblast-Ukraine border, a position echoed by other Moscow officials.

However, the ISW said that Moscow's officials want "to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent."

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