Russia's Black Sea Fleet Losses Worsen Even as Navy Flees Region

Much of the Black Sea Fleet has reportedly been pushed from its Crimea base but Kyiv is still delivering headline-grabbing strikes on Russia's navy, with the Rostov-on-Don the latest scalp touted by Ukraine.

Ukraine's General Staff said the Kilo-class submarine was hit Friday in Sevastopol port where it "sank on the spot" in a claim which has not been independently verified and about which Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry.

Kyiv said Friday's attack on the peninsula occupied by Moscow since 2014 which Ukraine has vowed to recapture, also targeted four launchers belonging to Russia's advanced S-400 air-defense system.

Without a navy of its own, Ukraine has continued to strike Moscow's vessels using long-range Western missiles and naval drones, forcing the fleet east toward its Novorossiysk base in Russia's Krasnodar territory.

"The Rostov-on-Don was probably also about to retreat to Novorossiysk," said Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst from the Bosphorus Observer maritime consultancy based in Istanbul.

He noted the submarine had been repaired following a drone strike in September 2023 and been put on the water again for a sea trial. "It got hit again," he told Newsweek.

Since the start of the war in February 2022, Ukraine says it has seriously damaged or sunk at least 15 warships, including the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, Moskva. Landing ships and other vessels, like the missile-armed Tsiklon warship in May and the Sergei Kotov in March were among the casualties.

The British Defense Ministry said in July at least 26 Russian vessels had been damaged or destroyed while one estimate in March by the Hudson Institute think tank said that Kyiv was on track to eliminate half the fleet by 2025.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the U.K. chief of the defense staff, said that Ukraine had brought the Russian fleet "to heel" through drones and long-range missiles and Ukraine's navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk recently said Russia's "last patrol ship" was moving away from Crimea.

"There is no chance right now for the Russian Navy to reestablish itself in the Western parts of the Black Sea as they have lost many assets," said Işık. "Because of Turkey's closure of the Bosporus, Russia has no ability to bring in new assets into the Black Sea except for a limited number of smaller units from the Caspian Sea."

However, Işık said it was notable that Moscow is also looking to establish another base in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as a part of Georgia, but it is controlled by de facto separatist authorities. Moscow has recognized Abkhazia as an independent state, while Tbilisi considers it occupied by Russia.

Işık said that Russia would soon send a tug vessel to assist submarines at the site in Ochamchire, a seaside town where a small naval facility used by Russia's fishing fleet would be repurposed. "The Russian Navy is not only just moving east to Novorossiysk but looking further, in the southeast corner of the Black Sea—away from any possible Ukrainian attack and safe harbor."

Meanwhile, with little progress on the front line in Ukraine and the Russian prisoner swap in which the Kremlin might try to push a narrative that it can negotiate the end of the war, Kyiv's latest strike on a Black Sea Fleet vessel has been timely, said Işık.

"It's important that Ukraine comes up with these successful operations that show it can prosecute the war it can still win."

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