Russia Quietly Renews Offensive Across Entire Ukraine Front: Kyiv

Kyiv's forces are fending off Russian offensive operations across the front line, Ukraine's General Staff has said.

This push by Moscow could be part of its plan to "grasp the initiative," after weeks of facing Kyiv's counteroffensive, a military analyst has told Newsweek.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that Russian offensive operations are taking place near the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast where they have "made confirmed gains in some areas."

The think tank also reported that Moscow's troops had pushed Ukrainian forces back from newly captured positions in Kherson Oblast.

These pushes come as Russia continues to conduct air strikes at military and civilian targets in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, Ukraine's armed forces said on Tuesday. Kyiv also said that its forces had repelled Russian attacks on the Lyman, Marina and Bakhmut axes of the front.

Russia's push for Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, which started around two weeks ago, has made the most headlines and is said to have resulted in heavy losses. The fiercely contested town lies on the front line and is the gateway to the city of Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014.

However, Russia has made confirmed advances in the area over the last few days, according to Russian military bloggers cited by the ISW, hinting that nearly five months since Ukraine's counteroffensive started, Moscow is hitting back.

"(The) Russians have been pushing in some locations, possibly trying to grasp the initiative after a more passive, defensive phase," open-source intelligence and military analyst, Emil Kastehelmi, told Newsweek.

"The strongest push is happening in Avdiivka. Even though the Russian losses are significant, the attack still continues," he said.

"Russia has not made much actual progress anywhere yet, and it's unclear if they actually have the capabilities to conduct a coordinated offensive throughout the front with larger strategic goals or just a series of smaller attacks in suitable places," he said.

"It's possible the Russians want to concentrate their offensive forces in a relatively small area with more limited goals," Kastehelmi said. "One of the main points the current situation signals is that the Russians still seem to have expendable mechanized reserves."

Ukraine has not breached Russian defense lines in Zaporizhzhia in its counteroffensive and Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute wrote in a commentary last week that Kyiv would be "highly unlikely" to breakthrough towards Tokmak this year "unless Russian forces decide to withdraw."

"Kyiv must fight carefully if it is to retain the initiative," Watling wrote, adding that both sides' ability to expand the scale of their operations is limited by training opportunities.

Faced by high losses, Russia has to commit replacement troops to keep up the strength of its units, he said. If Ukraine can maintain high casualties among Moscow's forces, it might be possible "to suppress Russia's ability to train sufficient new troops to the standard needed to effectively conduct offensive action."

But as Kastehelmi told Newsweek, "some speculated during the autumn that the Russians were running out of men. However, there was no clear proof of this then, and even less now."

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