Russia Is Turning Avdiivka Into the New Bakhmut

Europe's traumatic history is being dragged back to the surface in Ukraine. The country's fertile soil and ancient settlements still regurgitate debris of the mammoth battles that, almost eight decades ago, doomed Nazi Germany and heralded a Soviet ascendency over Eastern Europe that would last into the 1990s.

The reminders of the bygone conflict are constant. Soldiers digging trenches on the southern front have unearthed the bones of Nazi soldiers. Civilians seeking shelter from Russian drones and missiles have dusted off World War II-era bomb shelters, and authorities have stumbled across British-made Hurricane fighter aircraft buried on the outskirts of Kyiv.

All the while, Russia's propaganda network is framing Moscow's full-scale invasion as a crusade against resurgent Nazism in the West—President Vladimir Putin's own "Great Patriotic War."

Now, in Russia's grinding push around the fortified Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, history—this time more recent—may again be repeating itself. Moscow has set the stage for another bloody Donbas showdown reminiscent of its desperate offensive in Bakhmut, a razed city now synonymous with Russia's mass casualty devastation doctrine.

Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek that Moscow "might be trying to repeat the situation with Bakhmut, and it's ready to sacrifice lots of its human lives."

"As a dictator he desperately needs to show any 'success' on the front to the Russian population on the eve of the presidential elections," Merezhko said of Putin.

Russia's opening move in Avdiivka earlier in October—a fortified settlement on the outskirts of Donetsk, which since 2014 has been the nexus of the Moscow-directed separatist rebellion against Kyiv—appeared a costly failure, with Ukrainian forces reportedly claiming thousands of Russian soldiers killed and hundreds of pieces of military equipment destroyed.

Newsweek is unable to independently verify the casualty figures and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Moscow's troops have continued their push in the weeks since, attacking through withering Ukrainian fire and capturing territory around Avdiivka's northern and southern flanks, as well as advancing towards the road and rail arteries that supply the strategic settlement.

The danger is not new. Avdiivka has been a focus of fighting throughout the full-scale invasion, and indeed since Moscow's troops first entered Ukrainian territory in Crimea and the Donbas in 2014.

In March, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi—a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria military command—echoed a British Defense Ministry warning about Avdiivka's precarious position, telling reporters: "The enemy is constantly trying to encircle the town of Avdiivka. I very much agree with my colleagues from the U.K. that Avdiivka may soon become the second Bakhmut."

The Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) Wednesday update said that Russia's Avdiivka offensive was ongoing and had "made a confirmed advance" to the city's northwest. Russian milbloggers have also claimed the capture of a waste heap to the northwest of the city, which may offer fire control over a wide area below. Ukrainian officials have said the heap remains contested.

The ISW has characterized the Russian offensive as a "fixing operation" intended to draw attention and resources away from Ukraine's own offensive in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. The think tank has also said the current Russian grouping around Avdiivka is unlikely to be able to encircle the city.

Pavel Luzin, a Russian political analyst and visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, told Newsweek that despite the resources committed to the Avdiivka effort, Russian forces were showing little sign of evolving.

"There is no something new, no new capabilities at all," he said. "Just a local concentration of power and massive losses."

"The only rationale here: Russia wants to improve its negotiation position at any cost," Luzin added.

Bakhmut held some strategic value, though this was ultimately eclipsed by its political importance. The city's eventual fall to Russian forces led by Wagner Group mercenaries gave both the Kremlin and late Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin something to celebrate. For Ukraine, bleeding Russia's attacking forces and proving Kyiv's commitment to holding ground was equally important.

Avdiivka arguably has clearer strategic value than Bakhmut. Holding the settlement puts Ukrainian on the edges of Donetsk, a key political and logistical goal for both sides.

If Russian can seize Avdiivka, it would erase a troublesome Ukrainian salient in the front line and potentially open up a route to the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk—which has become the administrative capital of the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region—some 43 miles to the north.

Putin and his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, both appear to be downplaying the ongoing operation, describing the major offensive as an "active defense." But as in Bakhmut, the outcome of the new attack could prove influential in shaping the rest of the war.

"With Ukraine's own much-hyped counteroffensive so far failing to breach Russia's sophisticated defenses on the southern front, the destruction of Russia's offensive potential on the Avdiivka front will at least reduce the possibility of any major Russian breakthroughs during the coming winter months," the Atlantic Council think tank's Olivia Yanchik wrote this week.

"At the same time, the readiness of the Kremlin to sacrifice so many soldiers for limited objectives is a reminder that Putin remains undeterred and is fully committed to victory in Ukraine."

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