Ukraine's Key Winter Campaign Target, According to Igor Girkin

Former Russian military commander Igor Girkin, who has strongly criticized how the war in Ukraine has been handled and is currently in jail, has outlined in a letter what he believes will be Kyiv's key winter campaign target in the coming months.

The letter dated October 26, and published online on Monday by his wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, summarizes the frontline situation in Ukraine for the month of October.

Girkin, also known as Strelkov, is a Russian nationalist, a prominent military blogger, and a former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who assisted Russia's move to annex the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

He was detained in July after publishing commentary throughout the war critical of Russia's military strategy and setbacks. One Telegram post in particular said Russia "could not survive another six years of [Putin's] rule." He is currently awaiting trial on a charge of inciting extremism.

Ukraine's key target in its winter campaign, Girkin said in the letter, will likely be to capture the Kinburn Spit, a strategically important narrow strip of sand on the east bank of the Dnieper River in southern Kherson region, which was first seized by the Russian military in June 2022, and remains occupied.

Its capture would place Russian supply lines in range of Kyiv's weapon systems.

Ukraine's operational command Facebook page said back in November 2022 that the sandy area was the "focus of [the] enemy's life force, weapons and equipment."

London Politica, a political risk advisory, has noted that Russian forces have used the Kinburn Spit to conduct missile and artillery strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea Coast and throughout the Mykolaiv region.

"Ukraine's control of the Kinburn Spit will allow for direct logistic control of ports and increase their naval activity in the Black Sea and nearby regions," it said, adding that Kinburn Spit could become "the destination to hold the future course of the war."

Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry via email for comment.

Girkin had begun his letter by again criticizing Russia's performance throughout Ukraine's counteroffensive, which was launched in June and seeks to recapture territory seized by Moscow in the war.

"Despite the generally successful repulsion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive during the summer-autumn campaign, the Russian Armed Forces continue to demonstrate growing weakness (in comparison with the enemy's capabilities)," he wrote.

"The Russian Armed Forces were not only unable to proceed to broad offensive operations after the Armed Forces of Ukraine 'self-destructed' during the battles of June-September of this year, but they were also unable to conduct and successfully complete even limited offensive operations for operational purposes," Girkin said.

Girkin said battles for Avdiivka, a town in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, have demonstrated "the inability of the Russian Armed Forces to achieve superiority" over Ukraine "even on a very narrow sector of the front, despite careful preparation and good coordination of strike forces and means at the initial stage of the operation, as well as an abundance of ammunition unheard of since the assault on Bakhmut."

Russian President Vladimir Putin's military has dedicated heavy resources near Avdiivka, where heavy fighting continues. Kyiv has reported that Moscow's forces have sustained heavy losses in their efforts to capture Avdiivka.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Defense Ministry via email for comment.

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