Where Did Russia's Black Sea Fleet Go?

A large part of Russia's mauled Black Sea Fleet was seen leaving the port of Novorossiysk this week, with satellite images suggesting the berths of the southern Russian port had been largely emptied despite the ever-present threat posed by Ukrainian maritime drones and missiles.

The intentions of the vessels departing Novorossiysk—further from Ukrainian-controlled territory and considered safer than the Crimean ports repeatedly bombarded by Kyiv's forces—remain unclear.

But, according to open-source intelligence researchers tracking the fleet, many vessels have remained in the immediate area. Newsweek cannot independently verify the satellite images and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

OSINT researcher MT Anderson posted updated satellite images of the Novorossiysk base area on X—formerly known as Twitter—taken on Thursday, which suggested that several of the vessels had anchored in the bay within 1.5 miles of the entrance to the naval piers where they were previously moored.

"This doesn't account for all of them so maybe it's a mix of dispersion and exercises," Anderson wrote.

Among the ships potentially sighted anchored in the bay are two rescue tugs, two patrol vessels, and a frigate of either the Admiral Grigorovich or Krivak class.

Fellow OSINT analyst H I Sutton concurred, writing on X that Russia had moved "warships from berths in the naval base to positions in the bay."

An eight-vessel convoy of unknown makeup was also captured on satellite imagery heading in the direction of Crimea on Thursday.

The Ukrainian navy posted a situation update to social media on Friday morning, noting there was only one Russian ship in the Black Sea, 10 vessels in the Sea of Azov, and one in the Mediterranean Sea. The navy also noted the continued transit of Russian warships between the Black Sea and Sea of Azov using the Kerch Strait.

Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesperson for the southern Ukrainian Volunteer Army said that Moscow is moving some cruise missile submarines toward Crimea, as quoted by the Crimean Wind Telegram channel.

The Black Sea Fleet has been forced to largely abandon its traditional bases of choice on the occupied Crimean Peninsula because of numerous—and ever more sophisticated—Ukrainian long-range attacks. Despite having no conventional navy of note, Ukraine has scored repeated successes against the Russian fleet at sea.

Among the most high-profile Black Sea Fleet losses to date are its flagship guided missile cruiser Moskva, the Rostov-on-Don attack submarine, and several Ropucha-class landing ships. Kyiv also destroyed the fleet's headquarters building in Sevastopol in a cruise missile strike in 2023.

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