Russia 'Heavily Overestimated' Ukraine Gains Amid Offensive Push: ISW

Russia's newly installed defense minister "heavily overestimated Russian advances in Ukraine" since the start of the year, according to a new assessment, as clashes rage on along the hundreds of miles of front line in the war-torn country.

On Friday, Andrei Belousov, who took over as Russian defense minister in mid-May, said that Russia had seized control of 880 square kilometers (nearly 340 square miles) of territory in Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.

In remarks published by Russia's Defense Ministry, Belousov said Moscow had taken control of 28 settlements in May alone.

Referencing Belousov's comments, the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Friday that evidence suggests Moscow's troops have seized 752 square kilometers (about 290 square miles) of territory since early January.

Since the start of 2024, Russia has pushed on along the eastern front lines, capturing the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka in February and advancing west since. It has periodically said its forces have captured villages and towns in the east.

Russian troops then opened up a new front in the war in May, with troops pouring over the border into Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Kyiv said Moscow hoped to force Ukraine to pull scarce resources from the eastern front lines up to Kharkiv, designed to overstretch Ukraine ahead of resupplies of Western military aid arriving in the country.

Moscow quickly captured several settlements in northern Kharkiv, although recent assessments suggest Ukraine has succeeded in clinching some advances in areas targeted by Russia.

"Groups of Russian troops are pushing the enemy out of their positions," Belousov said. Ukrainian forces have "retreated eight to nine kilometers" in the Kharkiv region, he added. This is "consistent" with the ISW's assessments, the think tank said on Friday.

Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian military for comment via email.

The Ukrainian city of Vovchansk, around 3 miles from the Russian border, has come under heavy bombardment as fighting rages through the streets. Ukraine's military said on Saturday afternoon local time that Russia had launched a guided aerial bomb on Vovchansk from its border Belgorod region.

Russia has "marginally advanced" in the edges of the border city of Vovchansk, the ISW said on Friday. Geolocated footage from Thursday also indicated Ukraine made gains in central Vovchansk, the think tank added.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian military in Kharkiv told Ukrainian media earlier this week that Kyiv's forces controlled around 70 percent of Vovchansk, but street fighting continued.

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