NATO Ukraine Weapons Pivot Could Prove 'Critical' for Russian Offensive

The growing chorus of Western nations approving Ukraine's use of their weapons inside Russian borders could have a significant influence on the progress of Moscow's ongoing offensive, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

In its Thursday-evening update, the ISW said that the mounting approvals from Western capitals—as of Friday, including Berlin and, to an extent, Washington, D.C.—for Kyiv to use its advanced weapons to strike inside Russia will "play a critical role in Ukraine's defense of its territory and future counteroffensive operations." Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Russia's ongoing offensive into Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv Oblast have thrown Kyiv and its Western partners off balance, exposing the limitations of Ukrainian forces and piquing fears that additional offensives elsewhere may precipitate a significant Russian breakthrough.

Ukraine was largely unable to strike Russian troops massing along the frontier for the Kharkiv offensive. The Ukrainians agreed with NATO partners that their most-advanced weapons—particularly those contributed by the U.S.—could be used only to hit Russian targets on occupied Ukrainian territory.

"We had information before the latest Russian offensive near Kharkiv, about them assembling their troops, about their equipment, but we couldn't do anything," Yehor Cherniev—a member of the Ukrainian Parliament and the deputy head of its national security, defense and intelligence committee—told Newsweek earlier this week.

"We couldn't strike, and that's why we couldn't prevent this attack. That's why we lost some villages, some territories, and we lost our soldiers and civilians. This is ridiculous."

The U.S. and Germany have now joined the list of NATO allies approving Ukrainian strikes within Russia using Western weapons. Serhii Nykyforov, a spokesperson for President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, on Friday confirmed media reports that the White House had approved such strikes, but only in areas close to the border with Kharkiv.

"It will significantly boost our ability to counter Russian attempts to mass across the border," Nykyforov told U.K. newspaper The Guardian.

Politico and others had reported that President Joe Biden had given secret permission for Ukraine to use weapons including Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets—but not longer-range ATACMS missiles—to conduct "counter-fire" operations against Russian targets in the border region—consisting of Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts. The decision came into force on Thursday, U.K. newspaper The Financial Times reported.

"It is unclear how far into Belgorod Oblast the U.S. is permitting Ukrainian forces to strike with U.S.-provided weapons, or if Ukraine would be allowed to strike Russian force and equipment concentrations in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts," ISW wrote.

"Russian military targets outside the immediate border area with Kharkiv Oblast are also legitimate military targets, however, and continued restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike targets elsewhere in Russia hinder Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression.

"Russia still enjoys some sanctuary in which the Russian military can shield military forces before they get close enough to Kharkiv, or enter other parts of Ukraine. Russia will continue to benefit from any partial sanctuary so long as Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself," ISW added.

"ISW continues to assess that the U.S. should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets in Russia's operational and deep rear with U.S.-provided weapons."

Russian leaders have responded to this week's development with repeated vows to destroy all Western equipment and personnel in Ukraine, and with warnings that strikes inside Russia using weapons from the West risks nuclear war.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday accused Western powers of pursuing "a policy of provoking a new level of tensions." Moscow's adversaries abroad, he added, "intend to continue the war" with Russia, "a war in the literal and figurative sense."

"This will, of course, will inevitably entail its consequences. It will ultimately be very harmful to the interests of those countries which have opted for the path of escalation," Peskov said.

"The North Atlantic Alliance's member-countries, the United States in particular, other European capitals in recent days and weeks were coming close to a new round of escalating tensions. They are doing this on purpose."

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