Were Joe Biden's Hopes for a Pre-Convention Peace Deal Just Crushed?

The Biden administration appears to be nearing a Middle East peace deal with Saudi Arabia as several developments over the weekend could change dynamics in the region.

President Joe Biden's handling of foreign policy matters took center stage amid the simmering conflict between Israel and Hamas. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack against Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking about 250 others hostage. Israel subsequently launched an offensive in Gaza that has killed more than 34,800 Palestinians in the months since, the Associated Press reports, citing the Gaza Ministry of Health.

The conflict created a political quagmire for Biden domestically as he faced backlash from some voters on his support for Israel. Biden is a longtime Israel ally but has urged its leaders to take more caution to prevent civilian deaths.

His handling of the conflict sparked backlash from some Democrats who want him to work toward a ceasefire amid concerns about the civilian death toll of Israel's offensive. Some Biden supporters have raised concerns that pro-Palestinian protests could define the Democratic convention, set to be held in Chicago in August.

Biden achieving a peace deal by then could mitigate some of these concerns if he successfully brokers negotiations agreed upon by both the Israeli government and Palestinians. Such a deal would give him a key accomplishment he could tout to win the support of independent voters who could decide the election in November.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met last week to discuss a "semi-final" version of a security agreement that would strengthen relations between Washington and Riyadh, the Associated Press reported. Leaders between the two countries have also been working toward a deal to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Recent days have seen several developments that could further complicate dynamics in the region.

On Monday, the International Criminal Court announced it is pursuing arrest warrants for both Netanyahu and the Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, for their actions in the ongoing war in the territory, drawing rebuke from Biden, who called the warrants "outrageous."

Meanwhile, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, long viewed as an adversary of the U.S., died in a plane crash over the weekend. Much remains unknown about who will replace Raisi and how that could affect the region.

Analysts told Newsweek that these developments, while significant, are not likely to prevent Biden from reaching a deal with Saudi Arabia. However, they noted that other challenges in the region could make it difficult to reach a broader peace deal over the summer.

Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.

Javed Ali, a professor at the University of Michigan and former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council, told Newsweek on Monday these developments are unlikely to change Biden's ability to reach a peace deal. However, he noted that other factors still make the likelihood of a deal "remote."

The deal with Saudi Arabia "appears driven by a different set of factors." The most important variable is "Israel's willingness to accept the creation of an independent Palestinian state (most likely led by a revitalized Palestinian Authority with new leadership) in return for Saudi Arabia's normalization of ties with Israel," Ali said.

Howard Stoffer, a professor of international affairs at the University of New Haven, told Newsweek on Tuesday that Raisi is likely to be replaced by another hardline and that it is unlikely there will be substantial changes in Iranian policy as a result of his death.

The deal would be a "tremendous opportunity" for both the U.S. and Israel, Stoffer said. However, he said the deal is unlikely because Netanyahu's government may not be "reasonable." The ICC is "stretching into a situation it shouldn't be stretching into," as the political situation in Israel remains "untenable," he warned.

"Whether the U.S. can pull this off or not before the summer, I don't know, but that would probably be the window before it might become impossible," he said.

Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Newsweek that the ICC ruling is causing Netanyahu to "double down on defying the international community."

That plays well with the Israeli public but may make him more resistant to the Saudi deal, he said.

"But that may be helpful to Biden since part of the White House's strategy is to use the Saudi normalization deal to cause a crisis within the Israeli coalition government and force new elections, with the hope that the Israeli public will choose leaders that will opt for the normalization deal," he said.

Would a Peace Deal Prevent Convention Protests? Experts Weigh In

Stoffer cast doubt that a deal would quell protesters in Chicago, as he does not know what would satisfy their demands beyond a ceasefire and Israel reconstructing Gaza.

"At the convention in 1968, the police activity for Democrats basically sunk the chances for the Democrats to win the White House, and that's how Nixon was able to win, among other things," he said. "I'm fearful that of all times to have a convention in Chicago, with this kind of protest going on...it's really going to be critical how the police in Chicago handle that."

The 1968 Democratic convention, also in Chicago, saw widespread protests over the Vietnam War and internal divisions within the Democratic Party after then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey clinched the party's presidential nomination. The chaos at the convention was considered a key factor in the sinking of Humphrey's campaign at the time.

Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that brokering a peace deal in the Middle East could be a "significant win" Biden needs leading up to the election aid interparty divisions and polls showing him trail former President Donald Trump.

Reeher said he believes a deal could prevent widespread protests at the convention.

"It would certainly diminish the size and intensity of any protests. I would still expect to see something there, from the most dedicated activists, but not as widespread, and certainly nothing like Chicago in 1968," he said.

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