Ukraine War Maps Show Avdiivka Fighting Amid 'Costly' Russian Offensive

Russia is prepared to suffer high losses in its offensive in eastern Ukraine in a ploy aimed at weakening Western support for Kyiv, rather than achieving operational objectives, U.S. intelligence reported, as maps showed the latest situation on the ground.

Declassified intelligence shared with the U.S. Congress on Tuesday outlined how Russia has made no significant gains in the push launched in October in the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis in the western Donetsk Oblast, in which Moscow's forces have suffered 13,000 casualties and lost 220 combat vehicles.

A source familiar with the assessment told CNN that Russia had lost 87 percent of the 360,000 active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine, as well as two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks.

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said that Russia's military leadership believes that despite its high losses, a military "deadlock" will drain Western support for Kyiv, The New York Times reported.

This chimes with the assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which said on Tuesday that Russian forces are timing these "costly offensive operations" when ground maneuvering is difficult with "ongoing conversations in the West about continued support to Ukraine."

Concerns over U.S. support to Ukraine are growing after months of infighting in Congress over military aid for Kyiv with a $61 billion funding request stalled.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the White House had allocated $200 million in drawdown funds for Ukraine during President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington, D.C.

David Silbey, associate professor of history at Cornell University, said that Zelensky had arrived in the U.S. at a difficult time as the West shifts its attention to the Israel-Hamas war and amid political wrangling in Congress.

"Without that Western aid, Ukraine's ability to continue fighting is deeply in question," Silbey told Newsweek. "They simply don't have the resources to build the massive amount of munitions needed to continue fighting. Zelensky is talking for his life and his country's."

Meanwhile, Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that if Washington fails to cobble together a new aid package, "then it is quite true, as the Biden administration has stated, that sooner or later Ukraine will lose this war."

"Russia will have no incentive to compromise, pressing its manpower and materiel advantages until it can impose peace purely on its terms," he told Newsweek.

The ISW noted on Tuesday how the Kremlin has been conducting information operations aimed at combating Western security assistance to Kyiv, which Russian command assessed was yielding returns by fueling further Western debates about aid to Ukraine.

The think tank has provided daily maps of the state of play in the war, one of which on Tuesday showed how Russian forces advanced to the Avdiivka Coke Plant wastewater treatment facility on December 8, which Moscow says is used by Ukrainian forces as a base and weapons storage facility.

It also showed Russian advances around Sieverne and Marinka further south on December 11 and December 12, respectively. Another ISW map shows advances further afield in the Donetsk oblast, in particular towards Khromove and Bohdanivka, around 40 miles north of Avdiivka.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.

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