What Russia Gains From Marinka Capture

While Ukrainian forces have pulled back to the northern edge of the Donetsk city of Marinka, Russia could exploit the capture of the leveled town. But Moscow's success hinges on how much it has left in the tank to capitalize on what Marinka could offer.

Russia said on Monday that its forces were in full control of Marinka, which Ukraine initially denied. But Kyiv's top soldier, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, said late Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had retreated to the northern flank of the town.

"There is nothing controversial about the fact that Ukrainian soldiers have stepped back to the outskirts of the town of Marinka," Zaluzhnyi told the media.

Marinka has been evacuated, largely left in ruins after years of clashes between Ukrainian forces pitted against Russian and Moscow-backed forces.

"Marinka was practically wiped off the ground by the enemy," Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine's Tavria grouping of forces covering Marinka, told the BBC on December 23.

However, the loss could chip away at Ukrainian morale, and pave the way for further Russian gains if Moscow's exhausted forces can drum up the resources.

Moscow's grip on the town is of "potentially significant concern" for Ukraine on operational and strategic levels, said Serhiy Hrabsky, a military analyst and former Ukrainian army colonel.

There are two main routes for the Kremlin to take advantage of the capture of Marinka, even though the deserted town resembles the craters of the moon, he told Newsweek.

Moscow could threaten Ukrainian troops operating in the embattled town of Vuhledar and even leverage a disastrous withdrawal from the settlement, as well as inch closer to Ukrainian regions west of the four regions the front lines have cut through.

Ukraine's grasp around Novomykhailivka "will significantly deteriorate" now that Russia controls Marinka, Hrabsky said. Novomykhailivka is just south of Marinka, on the front lines where Russian sources have reported Russian advances in recent days.

Russia will also want to advance toward the town of Vuhledar, which was the site of bitter battles throughout 2022. Russian troops "desperately tried to capture" it, Hrabsky said, but Ukraine will need to steadfastly defend the settlement because of its strategic value.

Moscow could then work its way to the town of Kurakhove and ultimately down to Velyka Novosilka, close to the Donetsk border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. Apart from the obvious territorial gains for Russia, reaching the western Donetsk border would mark a significant propaganda victory for Moscow, Hrabsky said.

But Western analysts cast doubt on Russia's ability to summon the manpower and vehicles to push from Marinka. The Kremlin's control over the town is a "limited Russian tactical gain," and could only herald a significant new advance if Moscow's troops "have dramatically improved their ability to conduct rapid mechanized forward movement," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, said on Tuesday.

There is no sign Russia has done this, the ISW said.

"Desperate offensive actions significantly exhausted the Russian attacking potential," Hrabsky added.

As has been the case with Bakhmut, Ukraine would likely be able to stop Russian advances after the headline victory, he said. Bakhmut, the pummeled city southeast of Kramatorsk, fell under Russian control in May.

Parallels with Avdiivka

Ukraine's Tarnavskyi said in mid-December that Russia was "amassing forces in the vicinity of Marinka for further assault operations," as Moscow continued its onslaught on Avdiivka, the Donetsk mining town to the northeast of Donetsk City.

Avdiivka has become a meat-grinder, Russia's military throwing personnel and resources at the Ukrainian stronghold with Ukraine battling hard to stop Moscow's creeping encirclement.

"If we compare Marinka with Avdiivka, the enemy does not really want to enter Avdiivka. He wants to bypass it in order to avoid fighting in the city," Tarnavskyi told the BBC last week.

Like Avdiivka, Marinka has been on the front line since 2014.

"Over the course of nine years, the Ukrainian armed forces created a powerful fortified area there, which was connected by underground passages," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Monday.

Each street was "fairly well protected from all attacks from both the air and field artillery structures, long-term firing points and a complex system of underground communications," the defense chief told Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a Kremlin readout.

Russian forces have moved artillery positions further west of Donetsk City, Shoigu said, adding: "This makes it possible today to more effectively protect Donetsk from attacks."

But Marinka has far less value for both sides compared with Avdiivka, Hrabsky said.

"A small and completely destroyed settlement does not offer Russian forces a secure operational foothold from which to launch further offensive operations," the ISW said, noting Marinka's pre-invasion population of about 9,000 residents.

Capturing Avdiivka would allow Moscow to greatly expand its logistical operations, jeopardize Ukraine's operations against Russian positions in Donetsk City and could pave Russia's path to Kostyantynivka—a "quite important stronghold," Hrabsky added.

Kostyantynivka is, in turn, on the approach to the industrial zones around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, still firmly under Ukrainian control.

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