War Maps Show Russia's Creeping Advance in Ukraine

Russia's forces continue to exert momentum along the front line in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said, as a comparison of the think tank's maps show some of Moscow's incremental gains on the battlefield over the last 11 months.

The ISW provides maps with its daily updates and a comparison of graphics of Donetsk from May 22, 2023, with its latest on Tuesday illustrates some of Russia's advances in the eastern region.

Last year's graphics reflected President Vladimir Putin's assertion made the previous day that his forces had captured Bakhmut, which had been fiercely fought over for months. Tuesday's map shows how territory further south, in Avdiivka, and further east, was now also in Russian hands.

Russian troops captured Avdiivka on February 19 and have since pushed further east, with the latest map showing advances in the nearby settlements of Semenivka, Krasnohorivka and Novobakhmutivka. After the capture of Avdiivka, Russian forces have ramped up their offensive on Chasiv Yar around 30 miles to the north.

More detailed maps of Bakhmut and its surrounding areas from July 22, 2023, and Tuesday show how Moscow's troops have advanced east of Chasiv Yar, with yellow shading showing how Russia controls more territory than 11 months ago, including around Ivanivske and Bohdanivka.

Khortytsia Group of Forces' spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn told Politico that capturing Chasiv Yar will allow Russia to launch offensives against other cities in Donetsk Oblast, such as Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are "the last stronghold" of the region still under Ukrainian control.

Ukraine has said Moscow wants to capture Chasiv Yar as a propaganda coup before the May 9 Victory Day celebrations that commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Chief of Estonia's General Staff Major General Enno Mots told Estonian news outlet ERR that Russia had stepped up its front line operations and deep strike campaigns to degrade Ukraine's will to fight and take advantage of Ukrainian materiel shortages.

He described Russian forces' attempts to exploit vulnerabilities on the front line across the theater as "amoeba tactics," adding that Moscow does not care about its manpower or equipment losses.

A map of the Luhansk Oblast from Tuesday shows that Russian forces had reportedly advanced to the eastern outskirts of Terny north of Bakhmut. Yellow-shaded areas showed Russia had slightly less territory north of Stelmakhivka on Tuesday compared with May 22, 2023, but controlled more of the area around Torske.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, maps from May 22, 2023, and April 16, 2024, show the change in the state of play further south. Blue shading shows the extent of the claimed Ukrainian counteroffensive south of Mala Tokmachka and Kamianske.

The ISW said on Tuesday that Russian forces are reportedly suffering from morale issues and are using smaller groups for assaults in the east of Ukraine. Kyiv hopes equipment shortages, which threaten to hamper the progress of its forces, will be alleviated through further U.S. aid to be voted on this week.

Ukrainian National Guard spokesman Colonel Ruslan Muzychuk said on Tuesday that Russia is using groups split into two detachments reinforced with armored vehicles to conduct ground attacks. They were also using small vehicles without protection to approach Ukrainian positions quickly for infantry to attempt to secure.

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