Why U.S. Intel Says Israel Did Not Attack Gaza Hospital

U.S. intelligence has concluded that the Israeli Defense Forces did not attack the Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City and that 500 civilians did not die there, according to multiple officials in Washington.

The Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza has said that at least 500 people were killed in the blast at the hospital on Tuesday. Hamas has promised to release evidence that Israel bombed the hospital.

"Israel did not target the hospital, that we know" a senior Defense Intelligence Agency officer told Newsweek. "Imagery and signals [intercepts] additionally show that a rocket fired from inside Gaza landed near the hospital, not on it."

"We don't know how many people died, nor does Israel. Not yet," says a U.S. Air Force officer working on the subject. "But the intelligence, ours and Israel's, suggests a few dozen at most. I'm not saying this isn't a tragedy," the officer says, "but this is just another case of massive exaggeration and blatant lying on the part of Hamas. Palestinians are the responsible party, not Israel."

Officials and analysts who communicated with Newsweek say that they recognize that the narrative regarding the Hamas war has now fundamentally shifted, focusing more attention on Palestinian suffering and less on the surprise attack on Israel.

"Everything about the Hamas war, from the possibility of a Israel ground invasion to the pace of Israeli bombing will now be altered," a senior intelligence officer says.

The Israeli Air Force has also released material showing Islamic Jihad (PIJ) firing about 10 rockets towards Israeli from the same neighborhood the hospital is located in. A rocket or rockets technically "failed," the IAF says, landing on a parking lot. Drone footage released by the IAF shows shrapnel damage to the hospital building.

The IAF points out that there is no crater characteristic of an aerial bomb and that there is no collateral damage. "It can also be seen that the buildings next to the hospital were not damaged," the IAF says. "This is further proof that the IDF did not fire a war bomb into this area."

The IAF released data and a map showing the stark results of Palestinian rockets being launched against Israel, failing and landing back on Gaza. "The launches are carried out from compounds adjacent to buildings containing civilian populations such as hospitals, UN schools, mosques, restaurants, diplomatic buildings and hotels," the IAF says.

A Hamas official told Newsweek that the group was collecting evidence to show that the hospital was attacked by Israeli forces, including eyewitness accounts and the wreckage of rockets. He said this would be presented internationally, but did not give a timeframe.

A statement by The Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem described it as a "brutal attack" during the Israeli airstrikes.

"I know everyone is encouraging caution right now in jumping to conclusions," says the U.S. Air Force intelligence officer, "but facts are facts."

Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, President Joe Biden said yesterday he was "deeply saddened and outraged" by the explosion at the hospital, telling him that "it appears as though it was done by the other team," meaning Palestinian forces. Today, when asked by the reporter pool what makes him sure Israel wasn't behind the hospital explosion, Biden answered: "The data I was shown by my Defense Department."

"While we continue to collect information, our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday," says Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council in Washington tweeted this morning.

Speaking in Beijing today, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for a ceasefire. "The region is on the precipice," he warned. Tuesday, Guterres released a statement condeming "the strike" on the hospital, accepting preliminary reports of "hundreds killed."

The deadliest fighting in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in decades began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 in an assault that killed more than 1,400 people. At least 2,778 people have been killed by subsequent Israeli strikes in Gaza, according to The Associated Press.

Correction 10/18/23, 2 p.m. ET: Corrects misspellings

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