Will MAGA Republicans Kill an Israel-Ukraine Aid Package?

Senators on both sides of the aisle are working diligently this week to pass an aid package that would provide billions of dollars for Israel and Ukraine, but some on Capitol Hill are already saying it will be "dead on arrival" when it reaches the House.

"The 100 billion dollar thing that [President Joe] Biden wants and that the Senate Republican leadership wants is dead on arrival," Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, a Foreign Relations Committee member who's opposed Ukraine aid, told Newsweek. "I don't think the House will pass that. My suspicion is the House is going to send over an Israel-only package. I don't think the Speaker will survive sending over a wastebasket full of just billions of dollars for everybody in the world."

While the Republican Party overwhelmingly supports Israel in its battle against Hamas, the GOP holds a less unified stance on its support for funding Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Former President Donald Trump notably called on Congress in July to withhold funding to the war-torn nation until the FBI, IRS, and Justice Department "hand over every scrap of evidence" on the Biden family's allegedly nefarious business dealings.

Roughly two months later, 93 House Republicans voted in favor of prohibiting all military assistance to Ukraine, while 126 Republicans and all Democrats opposed the measure. Newly anointed Speaker Mike Johnson was among the 93 who opposed, and he has been vocal calling for greater oversight and transparency regarding U.S. aid to Ukraine.

However, after the House GOP spent three weeks searching for a Speaker to replace Congressman Kevin McCarthy, burning through three candidates prior to selecting Johnson, Republicans understand the need to display a united front. Johnson, whom members praised for being a strong listener, knows most of his conference still supports Ukraine and must ensure these members are heard.

"I wouldn't want to see these things [Israel and Ukraine aid] pulled out just on their own," Republican Congressman Michael McCaul of Texas, who chairs the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, told Newsweek. "Israel is very popular, and that's why I think it would be good to link. I kind of like linking the threats we face together into a national security aid package."

Hamas, which is backed by Iran and opposes Israel's existence, launched a series of attacks against Israel on October 7 that left 1,400 people dead and well over 200 held hostage. More than 7,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's subsequent bombing of the Gaza Strip, according to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry cited by the Associated Press.

The Ukraine War began with the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, in an attempt to topple democratically elected Volodymyr Zelensky.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been clear that he views American involvement in the two conflicts as a national security imperative meant to counter an "Axis of Evil" that he has said includes Russia, Iran and China.

In addition to the $61.4 billion earmarked for Ukraine and $14.3 billion for Israel, Biden's $106 billion aid request includes $7.4 billion for Taiwan, which faces the ongoing threat of an aggressive China. The package's remaining aid includes $13.6 billion for U.S.-Mexico border enforcement and $9.15 billion for other humanitarian efforts.

These numbers are not set in stone, as the Senate remains at work on the package. Republican Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, who's leading an ongoing GOP effort to split apart funding for Ukraine and Israel, said the conflict around Ukraine aid could slow down the process of aiding Israel. He believes Congress needs to think more strategically about America's end goal with Ukraine before providing the country with more aid.

"Israel needs our help yesterday," Marshall told Newsweek. "Ukraine is very controversial. I think if you have Ukraine funding, it's going to slow down the process. It's certainly going to meet resistance on the House side, and it's going to meet enough resistance here that we're not going to be able to compress the time to actually get something done over here."

"Let's start focusing on a peace solution there rather than more bombs to kill each other," he added. "I think we need some more time to debate Ukraine before we have a vote on it even. Ukraine is controversial. We've given them $113 billion already, and that war seems to be going nowhere right now."

During his September visit to Washington, Zelensky assured lawmakers during a private meeting that his military has a solid plan and that "they are winning." Nonetheless, even proponents of continued funding acknowledge the concerns Marshall raised.

Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee, said supporters of the cause must do a better job of explaining why continued support for Ukraine is in America's best interest.

Without U.S. support, allies of the Ukrainian effort fear that American adversaries could become emboldened to follow Russia's aggressive actions in the future. Rubio said that people perceive Ukraine as being as being prioritized over domestic needs, but he emphasized that aid toward for that war accounts for "only three percent of our total defense spending," an amount that would likely be less costly than a full-scale war with a country such as Russia.

"There's not been a good enough job done of outlining why this matters," Rubio told Newsweek. "I think you'd have more support for Ukraine if we were funding a strategic objective and an end result that you can also convince people furthers our national interest. That argument just hasn't been made."

Updated 10/27/23 at 8.27 a.m. ET with additional detail on death tolls

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