Russia 'Limiting' Use of Kalibr Missiles Hints at Deeper Logistics Trouble

Russia has dialed down its use of its sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, partly because Moscow is contending with logistical issues in firing them at Ukrainian territory, according to Kyiv's military.

"For the Russians, it is now problematic both to deliver missiles and to service the missile installations that launch the Kalibrs, and to reload with Kalibrs," Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's forces in the south of the country, said in remarks reported by Ukrainian media. Much of the logistics and infrastructure involved in firing Kalibr missiles is based in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, Humeniuk added.

Russia bases part of its Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, on the western coast of Crimea. Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and Kyiv has vowed to reclaim it. Throughout the more-than-25 months of all-out war, Ukraine has frequently, and often successfully, attacked Russian assets in Crimea, particularly in Sevastopol. "It is now very problematic for missile carriers to get there," Humeniuk added.

"Ukraine's ability to launch attacks on naval facilities and vessels in Sevastopol has had a significant impact on Russia's ability to launch Kalibr cruise missiles," William Freer, a research fellow with the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy, told Newsweek.

Only Russia's surface ships and its Kilo-class submarines can currently launch Kalibr missiles at Ukraine, Freer said.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Ukraine succeeded in striking Russia's Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine with Western-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles in Sevastopol in September 2023. The Rostov-on-Don was thought to be damaged beyond repair, and is one of a number of vessels Kyiv has said it has struck throughout the war.

"With many warships in the fleet being damaged or sunk, and their logistics facilities coming under sporadic attack, the ability to supply and launch these missiles to and from vessels in the Black Sea Fleet has been impacted," Freer said.

Moscow has been testing out alternative ways of launching the Kalibr, Freer added. He said that Russia's need to develop different methods of launching the cruise missile will increase over time as it feels the bite of losses to the Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine has reported a lull in Russia's Kalibr use in recent months, saying Moscow has opted to strike targets like the country's energy infrastructure using long-range air-launched Kh-101 missiles.

However, in an ominous warning on Sunday, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's military intelligence chief, said the Kremlin had been replenishing its stockpile of Kalibr missiles, and would soon resuming strikes on Ukrainian territory.

"In the near future, we will see the Kalibrs again because the number of Kh-101s has significantly decreased," Budanov told Ukrainian television, according to domestic media reports.

Exact numbers of Russian stockpiles of weapons like missiles are hard to pin down. Russia has expended thousands of missiles since February 2022, but has also put its defense industry on a war footing. Analysts and Ukrainian officials in the West say Western sanctions have been ineffective in stopping the supply of crucial components, such as those needed to put together Kalibr missiles, to Russia.

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