Satellite Photos Appear to Show Progress of IDF's Gaza Incursion

A map using satellite imagery of the Gaza Strip and geolocated footage appears to show how far Israeli forces have advanced into Palestinian territory since beginning their ground invasion in earnest at the weekend.

Footage circulated widely on social media purports to show an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tank firing near the Salah al-Din Road, a key artery that runs along the Palestinian exclave from north to south, near Al-Mughraqa to the south of Gaza City. Newsweek has yet to verify the footage independently.

While Julian Röpcke, an open-source intelligence investigator for German newspaper Bild, was able to geolocate the footage, it is unclear from the clip whether it is a tank that is firing, and whether the tank is being operated by the IDF.

Video obtained by the Associated Press reportedly showed Israeli tanks and bulldozers in central Gaza blocking the highway, though Israeli officials have so far declined to comment on specific deployments.

It is also as yet unconfirmed whether IDF forces have been able to secure the swath of land between the location of the footage and the Gaza border, as Röpcke's map suggests.

When approached by Newsweek, an IDF spokesperson would not comment on specific ground operations, but pointed to a statement on Monday morning by its head of communications, Daniel Hagari, in which he said Israel had "expanded our activity" in Gaza to achieve its objectives of dismantling Hamas and retrieving hostages currently held there.

"I will not detail here the positions of our forces even if they are published on social media," he added.

Were the footage to mark the beginning of an IDF incursion across central Gaza, it could suggest that Israel's plan is to encircle Gaza City to the north.

Röpcke's map shows that the IDF may hold a swath of land in the north of Gaza to the east of the Mediterranean coast, where Israeli military vehicles have been advancing.

As of 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update that the IDF held a slimmer portion of land along the coast, stopping along a vertical line from the northern border to the outskirts of Atatra. The independent think tank added that Saraya al-Quds Brigades—the armed wing of Islamic Jihad—had claimed an attack on the IDF advance, though geolocated footage shows IDF soldiers raising the Israeli flag on a building to the west of Atatra.

Palestinian media reported that militants had repelled an IDF advance towards Beit Hanoun from the northern border, further west from the geolocated footage, but had turned back after two Merkava tanks were destroyed, the ISW said. The IDF has not announced any such advance, and these claims could not be immediately verified by Newsweek.

Since around 1,500 Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, killing civilians, including children and the elderly, Israeli forces have conducted an intensive campaign of air strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, which many saw as a prelude to a widely anticipated ground offensive.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already vowed to destroy Hamas. On Saturday, he announced "the second phase of the war," which he described as "our second war of independence." This is a reference to the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed the declaration of the state of Israel, which Palestinians refer to as the Nakba, or "catastrophe."

As of Monday, Israel says more than 1,400 Israelis have been killed in the violence, according to AP, while the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry says more than 8,000 Palestinians have been killed so far.

Update 10/30/23, 12:35 p.m. ET: This article was updated to include a response from an IDF spokesperson.

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