Australian Open 2024: Can in-form Jannik Sinner clutch up for ultimate Novak Djokovic test?

Among the many storylines surrounding the Australian Open this year, it has relatively slipped under the radar that Jannik Sinner, the 21-year-old World No. 4 from Italy, is the most in-form player in the world.

His 6-4, 7-6 (5), 6-3 win over the fifth-seeded Russian Andrey Rublev on Tuesday was his 18th victory in the last 19 matches, which has included a talismanic Davis Cup win for his country. He has stormed through this tournament’s draw without dropping a set, and suffering only two breaks of serve.

The 26-year-old Rublev is in the peak of physical shape and is now an experienced campaigner who has spent much of the last four years among the world’s top 10 players. Yet, both his temperament and game have betrayed him on the big stage. Tuesday’s loss meant he had been defeated in each of his 10 quarterfinal appearances at the Majors.

Despite having to drown out the deafening hype that surrounded him as a teenager, Sinner has taken considerably less time than others, like Rublev, in the generation just before him to prove that he is more comfortable on the big stage.

He enters the second Grand Slam semifinal of his career where he will play the same opponent he faced in his first, at Wimbledon last year. And the upcoming contest will be the clearest indicator of whether the precocious Italian is ready to take the next step in his career.

With no active player his equal and the prospect of creating more history looming around each Major, Novak Djokovic remains men’s tennis’s ultimate boss; and even more so in his Melbourne lair, where he is a 10-time champion and currently on a 33-match unbeaten streak.

With his 7-6 (1), 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 win over Taylor Fritz on Tuesday, Djokovic sauntered into the final four of the first Major of the year despite having been several notches below his best throughout the tournament. There were no realistic scares, but none of his five opponents so far have challenged him to raise his game.

The scoreline may make it seem like the 12th-seeded Fritz, coming into the match with the hype that most top-rated Americans enjoy, was a resilient presence. To his credit, he had saved 15 break points on the trot at one stage to level the match at one set apiece, but Djokovic was much superior when it really counted, and Fritz displayed such a tendency to deteriorate when the stakes were raised, that the win never felt outside Djokovic’s reach.

In that sense, Sinner should represent a greater test for the Serb, who lives for these big moments. Not only has the Italian won two of the pair’s last three encounters, he also possesses the kind of playing style that pushes Djokovic out of his comfort zone.

Pure ball striker

Despite his wiry physique and calm demeanour, Sinner has a deceptively powerful game. Rather than muscling his shots, the pure connection he makes with the ball on his flat groundstrokes – particularly on his backhand side – allows him to hit through any opponent’s defence.

The Italian finds depth and pinpoint accuracy even when he is on the stretch, which offers him a solid base to build his game around and hides some of its undercooked features.

On Thursday, Rublev, whose power game allows him to match Sinner’s ball striking from the baseline, recovered from losing the first set by isolating some of those weaknesses. The Russian used his superior forehand to target Sinner’s weaker wing crosscourt, and put immense pressure on the Italian’s average second serve.

But it was Sinner’s preciseness from the baseline, composure, and clutch first serves that allowed him to come through the pressure moments, get over the physical discomfort he was feeling in his abdomen, and take the set deep into a tiebreaker.

From there, Sinner did what top players do. Despite trailing 1-5 in the breaker, he remained an aware presence on the other side of the net as his opponent buckled under pressure, raising his game just enough to pounce at the precise moment and win six consecutive points to steal the set. The semifinal was within his grasp from there.

15 sets played, 15 sets won.@janniksin sizzles into the #AusOpen semi finals with a 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 win over Andrey Rublev.@wwos • @espn • @eurosport • @wowowtennis pic.twitter.com/HR8kGnXwj1

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 23, 2024

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Dealing with nerves

Sinner’s rise may have been a lot steadier than the rapid ascent of Carlos Alcaraz, who was a Grand Slam champion and World No. 1 in his teens. The Italian took more time to grow into his body and deal with the physical demands of the tour.

There has also been a competitive flabbiness associated with his collapses at the Grand Slams. He lost from two sets up against Djokovic in the 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinal. Soon after at the US Open, he played his part in an all-time classic five-set quarterfinal against Alcaraz, which he lost despite holding a match point in the fourth set.

The draw at last year’s Australian Open was lopsided and inexplicably opened up in his half, but despite recovering from a two-set deficit with momentum on his side in the fourth round against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Sinner leaked too many errors to falter in the fifth.

After their wins, Djokovic and Alcaraz went on to lift the trophy, and Tsitsipas reached the final.

As much as Sinner’s recent results against Djokovic, form and playing style may also work in his favour, but he will have to break down the psychological barrier of attempting to take down this sport’s greatest player, on his favourite court, to prove he is not just making noise, but ready to take over.

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