Rabada galloping towards quickest to 300 Test wickets-figure with impressive average of 22.07

Kagiso Rabada did not have a substantial role during South Africa’s drawn Test against the West Indies in Port of Spain last week.

With left-arm spinner Keshav Maharaj claiming eight wickets in suitable conditions and marathon spells, Rabada remained in the backseat. In the second Test in Providence, though, the 29-year-old could be back in the spotlight as he nudges closer to a reasonably massive landmark.

The wiry paceman from Johannesburg, who only had two wickets from three matches on his maiden Test tour to India, has totalled 293 wickets in 60 Tests since. Should he add five more Windies wickets to his profile this week, Rabada will become the second quickest man (in terms of matches) in the 21st century behind the great Dale Steyn to reach 300 Test wickets. At 29, Rabada has already stamped his class among the most successful red-ball bowlers of the modern era.

Only one bowler – Mitchell Starc – has recorded more wickets than his 522 scalps since his international debut in late 2014, and no seamer has amassed as many Test wickets as he has since his debut.

Coupling consistency with remarkable rates of wicket-taking, Rabada has made the most out of his first decade in international cricket. He has successfully played most of his professional years in cricket on the global stage, enabling his move up to the 29th spot among the highest wicket-taking international seam bowlers within this span. With considerable game time left, Rabada could inevitably finish as the most prolific South African pacer and one of the most successful international speedsters ever.

One of the highlights of Rabada’s impressive Test exploits has been the pace with which he has attuned to the format. Rabada’s bowling average fell below 24 for the first time in his 21st Test and remains well below that cut-off for over 40 successive Tests, currently at 22.07.

Rabada’s wicket-taking rates with the red-ball are unprecedented, including all bowlers who have been at least half as successful as him in the format. His bowling strike rate (average number of balls taken for every wicket) of 39.30 is the best of all 121 bowlers who have picked up at least 150 Test wickets.

While nearly 62 per cent of his Test wickets have come at home, Rabada has also enjoyed reasonable success in Australia, New Zealand and England, averaging below 28 for 74 wickets. However, Rabada’s limited fortune in Asia remains the solitary blemish on his Test record.

Rabada has only bagged 22 wickets in 10 Tests in Asia at a middling 35.63 average and 71.7 strike-rate. His countryman Steyn is an outlier in this regard. No visiting pacer has recorded as many wickets (78) as Steyn in the continent, with an undisputed 38.9 strike rate.

With seven Tests left before he turns 30 in May 2025, Rabada could also finish his 20s as one of the most successful pacers ever, a list currently topped by Stuart Broad, who snapped up 345 Test wickets before his 30th birthday.

Rabada thus enters a pivotal phase of his career where he could break into the top 10 highest-wicket-taking pacers and make a run for the career hauls set by Jimmy Anderson (704) and Broad (604) – the two most successful Test seamers. He could touch the 400-wicket mark should he feature throughout South Africa’s Test cycle in the current Future Tours Program (FTP) that runs till 2027 with 23 Tests scheduled.

Rabada’s progression over 20-Test cycles in his career suggests he is currently at his peak in whites and he may even unlock a few more levels before saturation in the format. Keeping afloat with the rates he has achieved so far in his career, Rabada could touch the 400-wicket mark before South Africa’s current Future Tours Program (FTP) cycle ends in 2027.

It is also remarkable that he has remained equally successful in the ODI format in this period, besides 71 T20I wickets. Rabada’s 157 ODI wickets in 101 innings are only surpassed by New Zealand’s Trent Boult (165) among pacers since his debut in July 2015.

Even as several of his contemporaries are slowly heading the franchise cricket route, Rabada is potentially looking at a fair shot at raising the bar in internationals in the second half of his career while also spearheading the Proteas attack for at least four more seasons.

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