Why Lakshya Sen, despite a 1-7 losing head-to-head against Viktor Axelsen, can pull-off an upset

There will be two opponents fighting Viktor Axelsen in the semifinal of the Paris Olympics on Sunday.

Lakshya Sen, the Indian, will need to find himself an ally in the second unseen foe of the great Dane, the defending champion. That second invisible figure is the shadow of cloying expectations Axelsen’s glorious past casts on his present. A shadow of possible all-time greatness that will stalk him and grow longer, the closer he gets to his second gold.

In his lopsided quarterfinal win against Loh Kean Yew, Axelsen who won 21-9, 21-17, got terribly restless while the Singaporean was receiving medical attention, getting a blood wound bandaged. The Dane was a set and 7-3 up, with little chance of the score reversing. But when kept waiting before progressing, he leaked a few errors in the second.

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He is expected to bulldoze past everyone, looking ominous, having won in straight sets, not cedeing more than 17 points as he wants to pack in another gold that could put him equal with Lin Dan. But he’s also lost his temper in the last few months when the opponent got defiant.

5 of the top 6 ranked men’s singles players are out of the Olympics before semifinals at Paris, with only Axelsen lingering in Last 4. So his path is pretty cleared up. But the three who are left are simmering with unfulfilled ambitions, paving a new path for themselves, unafraid if plans collapse, and they are forced to pivot on their toes. Axelsen, though, battles a shadow, the memory of having done this before, of having felt in perfect control and being dominant — albeit three years ago.

The smallest of inconveniences, the tiniest of plans going off-kilter, and Sen’s Indian compatriot HS Prannoy had shown how Axelsen can be brought to come undone at the 2023 World Championships. He might sip his cafe au lait or crisp espresso, waking up on the right side of the bed and feeling pinch-perfect. But can denying the overwhelming favourite Axelsen a quick entry into the finals to do his thing, delaying his march, set off the fuse in a 19-19 situation? He’s a beast in finals, but does Axelsen see the semifinals against an unfancied opponent as a mere penultimate hurdle while he’s already dreaming up a double gold?

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It’s in that getting ahead of himself of the legendary Dane, that Sen will sense a tiny opening. Sen can be swatted aside, his retrieving game not particularly venomous. Axelsen’s attack can shred any defense, however persistent. But what if the Indian gets stuck in, and forces a decider? Axelsen isn’t exactly invulnerable. He lost to Wang Tzu Wei at Paris in March, to Toma Junior Popov in European Championships and gave a walkover to Li Shifeng at his last tournament before the Olympics. Two in the semifinals. Axelsen was taken down by an earnest Anthony Ginting at All England. He won Malaysia beating Lee Zii Jia, but not before being dragged into a third.

Over the past few years since Tokyo, Axelsen has hosted most of the upcoming names for sparring stints in Dubai, and his foresight sees three of them in Paris semis. Sen himself hasn’t quite won a title since autumn of 2022. He was also properly schooled when facing Axelsen at All England finals in 2022, the thrashing amongst the 1-7 head to head scores.

But twice in those 8 faceoffs, most recent ones, Sen went to three. At the German Open, Axelsen didn’t know what hit him as Sen snuck a surprise win with outrageous patches of aggression. At Singapore in the opening round, Sen was lurching, being a set and 6-9 down, before he suddenly upped the ante to level scores. The Indian fizzled out, but at Paris he’s landed after a resurgence and was determined to make this run count for a medal.

The pressure of nailing a medal since he’s come this far can play tricks on Sen too, and if Axelsen unleashes his torrent of monster smashes, it could be wrapped up in quick time. But Sen stayed undeterred even when Chou Tien Chen bombarded him. His defense might not win every long rally, but should Axelsen get plenty impatient, it can frustrate the Dane and give Sen a toehold. If it’s about catching the rangy champ out of position, Sen has the ideas to scatter his concentration. He will need empty spaces to bore down his reasonably sharp smashes, but Axelsen guards his backhand flank far more assiduously than Chen.

Sen, the inscrutable Indian with a game that’s transparent in its obvious limitations, is best placed to annoy Axelsen given it’s the semifinals. Preying on that patience, and eyeballing him at the net, might be the way to go, though he’ll need to be near-perfect from the back where he’ll be dispatched too against his will.

Axelsen, bronze in Rio, gold in Tokyo, is a heavy favourite against Lakshya Sen. The trouble with chasing nothing but the gold, and an unprecedented third medal, is how it can make you risk-averse. Sen isn’t the easiest opponent when you are also shrugging off a shadow. His only conflict might be whether he sees himself good for a bronze or a gold.

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