EXPLAINED: What does Satwik-Chirag’s men’s doubles knockout draw for badminton at Paris Olympics mean for their medal chances

India’s medal hopefuls Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty will take on Malaysia’s Aaron Chia and Soh Wooi Yik in a cracking quarterfinal contest at the Paris Olympics badminton event.

The Indians, seeded third, finished top of Group C on Wednesday after beating former world No 1 Fajar Alfian and Muhammad Rian Ardianto in straight games. It meant they earned the C1 notation and would have faced one of the three 2nd-placed teams from the other three groups. After Group D matches came to a close on Wednesday, the men’s doubles draw took place. Aaron Chia-Soh Woi Yook, who are history-makers for Malaysia as the country’s first ever World Champions in 2022, will now take on SatChi.

What’s SatChi’s record against Chia-Soh?

On paper, it is a slightly alarming 3-8. But don’t lose hope, Indian fans. Chia-Soh were once proving to Satwik-Chirag’s nemesis, as the Malaysians reeled off win after win after win, going up 8-0 at one point. One of those 8 defeats was also a heartbreaking three-game affair at the World Championships semifinals in Tokyo where the Malaysians went on to win gold while the Indians finished with bronze. Since losing 8 in a row, however, SatChi have won the last three meetings against Chia-Soh, and all three of those in straight games. The most significant win in that list for SatChi was at the Indonesia Open final last year. SatChi also beat Chia-Soh at the India Open at the start of this year. The recent edge is with the India former world No 1s.

So, what’s next?

Here’s where it gets tricky. Because either B1 or C1 were to be drawn into the top half or bottom half, Satwik-Chirag ended up getting into the same half as the world No 1 Liang Wei Keng and Wang Chang. Liang-Wang are the top seeds, and have troubled the Indians consistently in recent times, most tellingly in the finals of China Masters and Malaysia Open. The Chinese also won the Thomas Cup quarter-final tie in early February – and offer a significant threat to the young Indian duo’s gold-medal hopes. The overall H2H stands at 2-5 now but the Indians can take heart from a dominant win at the Asian Games team event final last year in the Chinese’s backyard. Of course, before all this, Liang and Wang have to overcome the Alfian-Ardianto in the quarterfinals. The Indoensian former world No 1 might have been blown away by SatChi in Group C decider, but will be smarting to bounce back.

What does it mean for medal chances?

First things first, India must overcome the defensive might of Chia and the variety of Soh to win the quarterfinals. If they reach the semis, they will be guaranteed a shot at medal because they will either play the final or a playoff for the bronze. They might have to overcome two pairs who they have a losing record against but at their best, SatChi are capable of beating most pairs on the day.

Is this a good draw?

Well, when we are talking about the best pairs in men’s doubles, there are not many easy matches. The Indians’ potential opponents apart from Chia / Soh were Kim Astrup / Anders Skaarup Rasmussen, or Supak Jomkoh / Kittinupong Kedren. The Danish world No 2 are tactically perhaps the pair the Indians have found most difficult to deal with so avoiding them is a good thing. In the end, at the Olympic Game, you’d have to beat the best to be the best, and Satwik-Chirag will know that.

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