Where does Afghanistan’s win over Australia leave India in the race for a semi final spot

Afghanistan’s historic five-wicket win over Australia has tossed up a three-way contest for the semifinal spots in Group 1, with India leading the race ahead of the final round.

What does India need to do?

For India to secure qualification, they simply need to beat Australia or avoid a heavy defeat in St Lucia on Monday. Their superior net run rate (+2.425) puts them in a spot where they are all but through to the semifinals and can likely avert a last-minute upset that could knock them out.

What does Australia need to do?

As for Australia, Mitchell Marsh’s side (+0.223) can still pip Afghanistan (-0.650) on net run rate with a win over India. If Australia are to overhaul India and take the first spot, they will need a big win. For example, if India set a 151-run target, Australia will need to chase them down within 14 overs to surpass Rohit Sharma’s side on NRR. Similarly, if Australia bat first and get a 190-run total on the board, India will be required to attain at least 150 runs to maintain their position at the top.

What does Afghanistan need to do?

Afghanistan’s NRR equations will boil down to the result of the India-Australia contest, following which they take on Bangladesh in Kingstown. An Indian win will mean that Afghanistan’s contest will be a direct shootout where a victory over Bangladesh can propel them to their first World Cup semifinal.

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