T20 World Cup scenarios: Despite complications, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, England, New Zealand can still qualify for Super 8s

T20 World Cup scenarios: Multiple heavyweights find themselves in a scramble to qualify for the Super 8s of the ongoing T20 World Cup at the moment. Some teams are under pressure due to washouts in group games while others suffered defeats that have put their chances in the balance.

The situation for some teams is more dire than for others. In this explainer, we break down the qualification scenarios for the heavyweights like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, England and New Zealand:

How can Sri Lanka still qualify for Super 8 at T20 World Cup?

Sri Lanka’s situation: Three games played, one point accumulated with a NRR of -0.777

The washout of their game against Nepal on Wednesday morning surely hurt the Sri Lankan team. The irony of this situation is that they will be forced to pray to the weather gods to help them move to the super 8 stage.

After the washout in Lauderhill, Sri Lanka’s final game is against the Netherlands on June 17. If they win that, they will have three points since they were handed defeats by both South Africa and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Bangladesh and Netherlands are already on two points with two games to go.

This means they will need the following sequence to happen: The Bangladesh vs Netherlands match gets washed out, meaning both sides get just one point. Because if there is a game, then one of the two teams will get two points and Sri Lanka will be ousted.

If the washout happens, then Sri Lanka will additionally need South Africa to defeat Nepal on Friday, and Nepal to beat Bangladesh on Sunday. Finally, they will then need to defeat the Netherlands on Sunday.

But even if all of these things play out, Sri Lanka will finish on three points, along with Bangladesh, Netherlands and Nepal. Net run rates will then come into play, and Sri Lanka will have to make sure they finish above all three teams.

How can Pakistan still qualify for Super 8 at T20 World Cup?

Pakistan’s situation: After three matches, Pakistan are third in the Group A standings with two points. Canada also have two points.

After suffering defeats to USA and India, Pakistan finally managed to get some points on board with a victory over Canada. Their net run rate has risen to 0.191. Pakistan will need to beat Ireland, but will also need USA to lose both their two remaining matches. According to calculations, even if USA manage to lose their two group matches by a combined margin of ten runs (with scores of 140 by the team batting first), a win by any margin will be enough for Pakistan as long as they score at least 112 batting first.

Pakistan’s Mohammad Amir, second left, celebrates with teammates after the dismissal of Canada’s captain Saad Bin Zafar during the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup cricket match between Pakistan and Canada at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium in Westbury, New York, Tuesday, June 11, 2024. (AP/PTI)

Pakistan will have one eye on the sky for the clash against Ireland, which will happen at Lauderhill, where the Sri Lanka vs Nepal games was washed out on Wednesday morning. If USA manage to get even one more point and Pakistan drop a point due to a washout, the Asian giants will be out of the World Cup.

How can England still qualify for Super 8 at T20 World Cup?

England’s situation: England are in 4th spot in group B with one point from two matches with a NRR of -1.800

England will need to win their last two games. But they also have to hope that Scotland lose their final group game to Australia on Saturday. Scotland have a superior run rate than England at the moment. Their win over Oman with 41 balls to spare propped up Scotland’s NRR to 2.164, and made England’s job that much harder.

Even if Scotland lose to Australia, England will have to win their last two games against Oman and Namibia by certain margins so that their NRR is boosted.

How can New Zealand still qualify for Super 8 at T20 World Cup?

New Zealand’s situation: The Black Caps are fifth among five teams in Group C with one defeat from the only game they have played.

What should worry New Zealand is that their opening game defeat came to Afghanistan and by a margin of 84 runs. The defeat also sunk their NRR to –4.200.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s run rate is at 5.225. Both West Indies and Afghanistan have thumped Uganda. This makes the game against co-hosts West Indies a knock-out clash for the Black Caps. If the Oceanic country lose to the West Indies, then the West Indies will qualify for the Super 8s with six points, with Afghanistan in the driver’s seat to secure the second spot from the group.

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