IPL playoff scenarios explained after GT’s elimination: Six team battle for three spots

With just seven games remaining in the group stage of the IPL 2024, only one team is secured of a spot in the IPL Playoffs: Kolkata Knight Riders.

There are as many as six teams who have a shot at qualifying for the IPL playoffs. Gujarat Titans, Punjab Kings and Mumbai Indians are the three teams who cannot qualify for the IPL 2024 Playoffs anymore.

Here’s what each of the six teams will need to do to make it to the IPL Playoff:

Rajasthan Royals (RR)

Played: 12, points: 16, NRR: 0.349 | Remaining matches: PBKS (h), KKR (h)

RR’s remaining matches against Punjab Kings and Kolkata Knight Riders are scheduled to be held at Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati.

Rajasthan Royals are on 16 points. There are three other teams — Chennai Super Kings, Sunrisers Hyderabad and Lucknow Super Giants — who can reach 16 points (SRH can reach 18). RR are in a much better position for the IPL playoff.

If LSG lose to DC on Tuesday, RR will qualify. But if LSG win, then one win will help RR qualify for the IPL Playoffs. Two wins will guarantee them a top-two finish, and even if they win one and have a net run rate above SRH, they will finish in top two.

Even if RR lose both their matches, they are likely to be in the safe zone. Lucknow Super Giants have a considerable challenge ahead, given that their Net Run Rate stands at -0.769. It will take a gargantuan effort for them to improve their run rate and go past RR’s (0.349), even with two wins in their remaining matches. Nonetheless, RR cannot afford to be complacent and must aim to secure wins in both matches.

Chennai Super Kings (CSK)

Played: 13, points: 14, NRR: 0.528 | Remaining match: RCB (a)

CSK have played 13 matches with 14 points and a Net Run Rate of 0.528. Their last match, against Royal Challengers Bengaluru, is an away match at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru on May 18. CSK’s strong net run rate places them in a favourable position to secure a spot in the top four if they emerge victorious against RCB in their final match.

However, should they fail to win against RCB, their qualification hopes will depend on other results. They would need either SRH or LSG to lose one of their matches and finish below 16 points in the standings to boost their chances. Additionally, if CSK suffer a loss, they must ensure that their margin of defeat is minimal to maintain their advantage over RCB in terms of run rate. Furthermore, if both SRH and LSG finish with 14 or fewer points, it creates the possibility for both CSK and RCB to qualify with 14 points each.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH)

Played: 12, points: 14, NRR: 0.406 | Remaining matches: GT (h), PBKS (h)

SRH have two remaining matches, against Gujarat Titans and Punjab Kings, both scheduled to be held at Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad, on May 16 and 19. Despite their current standing, SRH will aim to secure victories in these matches to further solidify their position for the IPL playoffs. SRH’s superior run rate compared to LSG’s provides them with a considerable advantage, and securing just one win in their two remaining games should be sufficient to ensure their qualification for the IPL playoffs.

Two victories could potentially elevate them to contention for a top-two finish. However, if they were to lose both matches, their IPL playoff hopes could be jeopardized, as both CSK and RCB could leapfrog them in the standings based on Net Run Rate.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB)

Played: 13, Points: 12, NRR: 0.387 | Remaining match: CSK (h)

RCB have one more match left, against Chennai Super Kings, and it’s a home match at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru on May 18.

It’s a must-win match for RCB and even if they win, they will have to depend on the other results to go their way. They would need SRH to lose both and LSG to lose at least one of their two games. In any scenario, they would look to beat CSK (0.528) by a decent margin, which takes their net run rate higher than CSK’s. If the other results go their way, RCB stand a good chance of qualifying for the IPL Playoffs with a better Net Run Rate than CSK.

Delhi Capitals (DC)

Played: 13, points: 12, NRR: -0.482 | Remaining match: LSG (h)

DC have one more match left, against Lucknow Super Giants, and it’s a home match at the Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi, on Tuesday. DC’s best chance lies in SRH suffering significant defeats in their final two matches, CSK emerging victorious against RCB, and LSG winning no more than one game while maintaining a run rate below that of DC.

With their dependence on so many difficult and complicated permutations, combinations, and calculations, their chances look slim.

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG)

Played: 12, points: 12, NRR: -0.769 | Remaining matches: DC (a), MI (a)

LSG have two remaining fixtures, against Delhi Capitals and Mumbai Indians, both of which are away matches scheduled to take place at Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi, and Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, on May 14 and 17.

LSG’s low net run rate places them in a challenging position where they have to win both their matches to stay in contention. And not just that, they will need the other results to go their way, as even upon reaching 16 points, they could still find themselves trailing behind CSK and SRH, who boast of significantly better net run rates. Even in the scenario where the Rajasthan Royals were to lose both matches, the likelihood of LSG surpassing them in terms of run rate remains highly unlikely. Consequently, the probability of LSG qualifying for the IPL playoffs is very low.

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