English Premier League: Odds stacked in Manchester City’s favour in title race but there could be one last twist

Last weekend in the English Premier League, the pulsating three-way title marathon was reduced to a two-horse sprint.

Liverpool’s fallow April continued as Jurgen Klopp dropped points against West Ham United, shredding the last shreds of a fairytale farewell, and fell aside. It’s now a straight shootout between Arsenal, leading Manchester City by a point, though Pep Guardiola’s men have a game in hand. The serial champions have destiny in their hands, whereas, the Gunners could only hope and pray that City slip in one of their four fixtures and they grab all nine points they could, leading to a suspenseful climax.

The odds, though, are stacked heavily in City’s favour. Not just that they have been champions in the past three seasons with a knowhow of how to keep their wits under pressure, not just that they possess late-season invulnerability, but their players raise their game by several notches when the finish-line starts to glimmer in their sight. Although Guardiola, or any other manager, doesn’t prefer taking a title pursuit down to the wire, City thrive in such situations, when they know they can’t afford to lose, or draw a game. “They like to play with pressure. They know it’s dead or alive,” Guardiola said.

Last season, a 12-match winning streak that spanned from late February to mid-May, combined with the faltering Arsenal, nailed them the league. This time around, they are on an unbeaten 20-game run in the league, winning 16 of them, and having not tasted defeat this calendar year yet. Baffling then is the perception that City have looked vulnerable this season. That Erling Haaland had a middling season (still leading the chart despite missing eight games); that Kevin de Bruyne had looked like a spent force; that they have a porous backline. All of these are true to some extent, but City somehow get their business done.

All they need to ensure is that they win the four remaining fixtures. Simple. The lone potential banana skin is Tottenham Hotspur, who subjected Arsenal to much torture in the last quarter of the game. The Gunners, though exuding control in the first hour, were fortunate to not have dropped points. Second half implosion has been their glaring flaw this season, when they, from nowhere lose their grip over the match. But the victory — the toughest game of their last five games — has breathed hope into them.

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah talks to manager Juergen Klopp (Action Images via Reuters/John Sibley).

Mikel Arteta, who was spotted furiously praying in the dug-out in the dying stages of the game, was in buoyant mood when he met the press. “I’ve seen that the whole season. They give me the reason to believe that every single day. We are right on it. The motivation for what is ahead is beautiful. We are all expecting that they’re going to have a real go,” he would say, almost firing a warning at City.

The Gunners have a slightly easier run-in — Bournemouth, resurgent but not with adequate firepower, a ponderous and injury-ravaged Manchester United and plucky but leaky Everton. City have to travel to Spurs, the home of Arsenal’s bitterest rivals, a game that could well have a say on the title tilt. All other games — home to Wolves, West Ham and Fulham — look endearingly winnable. It would be a glorious irony if Spurs could lend a helping hand to Arsenal’s title dreams, or if Manchester United could hand their derby antagonists a boost when Arsenal visit Old Trafford. There could yet be twists and turns this season. It could, like the 2012 finale, boil down to the last seconds of the last game, and perhaps be decided on goal difference too.

The key difference between this season and the last has been the persistence of Arsenal. Last time, they wilted after City kayoed them. Just one win in four games in April and two defeats in five games in May stalled their title tussle. This time, though, they have been steelier, losing only to Aston Villa, a costly defeat though that was, in six games. “Maybe last season that could have ended in a draw and we showed we have the experience,” talisman Bukayo Saka said after the game. Now, they need to ensure that May is as sweet as April for them.

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April, though, was a cruel month for Liverpool. They began the month with more odds than Arsenal, but saw the title prospects unravel. Beginning with a draw at Old Trafford, they lost to Crystal Palace and Everton, besides dropping points against West Ham. Worse was the sight of Jurgen Klopp and Mohammed Salah almost clutching at each other’s throats, capturing their agony and frustration at wasting a title-charge. It was symbolic, the two men that embodied their ideals in the last 10 years, behaving like teenagers. A sense of doom flitted in their dugout, as they pressed for the equaliser that could have kept their slim hopes alive, and granted their greatest manager of the century a fitting farewell. But instead, this was the week a three-way marathon became a two-horse sprint. The sweaty suspense, though, remains.

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