Candidates 2024: With Gukesh holding edge, breaking down all likely scenarios for Round 14, including tiebreakers

After 13 exciting rounds, the Candidates chess tournament reaches its climax today when the final round is played. The open section is a four-horse race between a teenager from India (17-year-old D Gukesh), two men from USA (World No 2 Fabiano Caruana and World No 3 Hikaru Nakamura) and one Russian (two-time Candidates winner Ian Nepomniachtchi).

But the final round is expected to see plenty of drama, because Gukesh is facing Nakamura while Caruana takes on Nepomniachtchi in the 14th round.

Heading into Round 14, Gukesh has 8.5 points while Nakamura, Nepomniachtchi and Caruana are all on eight points.

Here’s a breakdown of all the scenarios:

What happens if Gukesh wins the Candidates?

IF Gukesh emerges as the winner of the Candidates tournament, he will face the reigning world champion Ding Liren with the crown on the line. That battle is expected to happen next year.

Scenarios for Gukesh in Round 14 at the Candidates

If Gukesh beats Nakamura in the last round to be played on Sunday, then – irrespective of the outcome of the Nepomniachtchi-Caruana match – he goes on to challenge China’s Ding Liren for the World Chess Championship in the coming cycle.

If Gukesh draws, he will learn his fate from the outcome of the Nepomniachtchi vs Caruana match. If that one too is a draw, then the Indian sails through; if there is a result, the winner plays Gukesh in a 2-match tiebreaker with tighter time controls.

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If Gukesh loses, then he is out of contention even if the matter goes into tiebreaks, since Nakamura will have half a point more than him. In this scenario, Nakamura moves to the head of the table. If the Nepomniachtchi-Caruana match is a draw, Nakamurama gets to take on Ding Liren for the world chess crown. If it has a decisive result in either player’s favour, the winner plays Nakamura in the tiebreaker stage with tighter time controls.

What happens if Gukesh finds himself in the tiebreakers at the Candidates

If Gukesh is tied for first place after 14 rounds, a play-off to determine the winner shall be played. The play-off may consist of up to three stages. Considering the way the four players are placed, and the fact that they’re all facing each other, it’s only possible that two players can end up tied at the top of the standings, not more than two.

In Stage I, after a drawing for colours made on the day of Round 14, the two players tied shall play a match of two games with a time control of 15 minutes for each player + 10 seconds increment per move, starting from move 1.

IF the two games cannot decide a winner, the contest proceeds to even faster time controls in Stage II of the tiebreakers. After a drawing for colours, a match of two games shall be played with a time control of 3 minutes
for each player + 2 seconds increment per move, starting from move 1.

IF there is still no winner after this, the contest proceeds to Stage III, where every game will be a knockout game played with a time control of 3 minutes for each player + 2 seconds increment per move, starting from move 1. The colours for the game shall be determined by a drawing of lots.

Gukesh can avoid this tricky path by simply defeating Nakamura.

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